BBM Magazine 101 - June/Haziran 2026

BBM • JUNE - HAZİRAN 2026 BBM • JUNE - HAZİRAN 2026 24 25 NEWS NEWS HABER HABER Göymen also noted that the installed capacity of Tür- kiye’s pasta factories has reached 3.5 million tons as of 2026, underlining the strength of the country’s industrial infrastructure. TÜRKİYE’S PRODUCTION COULD RISE TO 4.1 MILLION TONS Göymen said Türkiye’s durum wheat production, which stood at 3.508 million tons in the 2025/26 season, is ex- pected to increase to 4.1 million tons in 2026/27. This rep- resents a year-on-year increase of around 592,000 tons. This rise is one of the most notable positive develop- ments in the global durum wheat market. While production declines are expected in Canada, the European Union, the United States, Italy and Russia, Türkiye is among the coun- tries that stand out with an expected increase, alongside Mexico and Algeria. GLOBAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO DECLINE Global durum wheat production is expected to decline by around 1.97 million tons in the 2026/27 season compared with the previous season. However, as Morocco’s durumwheat out- put has limited impact on international trade, the commercially more relevant decline is assessed at around 1.75 million tons. The largest production declines are expected in Canada, the European Union, the United States, Italy and Russia. Canada’s production is forecast to fall by 1.15 million tons to around 6 million tons, while the European Union is expected to see a decline of more than 1 million tons. Italy is projected to record a decrease of around 399,000 tons, the United States 343,000 tons and Russia 300,000 tons. By contrast, Türkiye is expected to increase production by 592,000 tons, Mexico by 390,000 tons and Algeria by 235,000 tons. This outlook indicates that Türkiye will play a more critical role in the global durum wheat balance in the 2026/27 season. HIGH STOCKS POINT TO NO SUPPLY SHORTAGE Despite the expected decline in global production, Göy- men emphasized that there is no visible supply gap in the world durum wheat market. The main reason is the high level of carryover stocks from the previous season. World durum wheat ending stocks for the 2026/27 sea- son are expected to reach 6.515 million tons. This is around 37% above the long-term average of 4.752 million tons. The highest stock levels are expected in the European Union, Canada and Türkiye. Ending stocks are projected at 1.742 million tons in the EU, 1.361 million tons in Canada and 1.309 million tons in Türkiye. TÜRKİYE’S STOCKS NEARLY DOUBLE THE RECENT AVERAGE One of the most striking indicators for Türkiye is its stock level. Türkiye is expected to hold 1.309 million tons of durum wheat stocks by the end of the 2026/27 sea- son. This is almost twice the country’s recent average of 654,000 tons. This high stock level points to a comfortable durum wheat supply outlook in the domestic market. The combination of production rising to 4.1 million tons and stocks remaining high could create a more balanced raw material environ- ment for the pasta industry. However, Göymen stressed that the direction of the mar- ket will not be determined by volume alone. Quality will be the key factor. QUALITY TODETERMINE PRICE DIRECTION Since the expected decline in global produc- tion is concentrated particularly in high-quality durum wheat suppliers such as Canada and the European Union, the balance in premium-quali- ty supply could become more sensitive. For this reason, the direction of prices will de- pend less on total production volume and more on crop quality in Canada, Türkiye and Europe. Protein levels and vitreousness will be among the key quality parameters shaping durum wheat pricing in the new season. Even if production is high, weaker quality pa- rameters could influence millers’ and pasta pro- ducers’ purchasing decisions, as well as import and export dynamics. Therefore, the central question for the 2026/27 durum wheat season will not only be “how much wheat is available?” but also “to what extent does the crop quality meet the needs of the industry?” Buna karşılık Türkiye’de 592 bin ton, Meksika’da 390 bin ton, Cezayir’de ise 235 bin tonluk üretim artışı öngörülüyor. Bu tablo, Türkiye’nin 2026/27 sezonunda dünya makarnalık buğday dengesi açısından daha kritik bir ülke haline gelece- ğini gösteriyor. STOKLAR YÜKSEK, ARZ AÇIĞI GÖRÜNMÜYOR Küresel üretimde düşüş beklentisine rağmen Göymen, dünya makarnalık buğday piyasasında arz açığı görünmedi- ğini vurguladı. Bunun temel nedeni, geçmiş sezondan devre- den yüksek stoklar. 2026/27 sezonunda dünya durum buğdayı sezon sonu stoklarının 6 milyon 515 bin ton seviyesinde gerçekleşmesi bekleniyor. Bu rakam, uzun dönem ortalaması olan 4 milyon 752 bin tonun yaklaşık yüzde 37 üzerinde bulunuyor. En yüksek stok seviyeleri Avrupa Birliği, Kanada ve Türkiye’de görülüyor. Avrupa Birliği’nde sezon sonu stok- larının 1 milyon 742 bin ton, Kanada’da 1 milyon 361 bin ton, Türkiye’de ise 1 milyon 309 bin ton olması bekleniyor. TÜRKİYE’DE STOKLAR ORTALAMANIN İKİ KATINA YAKLAŞTI Türkiye açısından en dikkat çekici göstergelerden biri stok seviyesi. Türkiye’nin 2026/27 sezonu sonunda 1 milyon 309 bin ton makarnalık buğday stokuna sahip olması bekleniyor. Bu rakam, son yıllar ortalaması olan 654 bin tonun yaklaşık iki katına denk geliyor. Bu yüksek stok seviyesi, yeni sezonda iç pi- yasada makarnalık buğday arzının rahat olabi- leceğine işaret ediyor. Türkiye’de üretimin 4,1 milyon tona yükselmesi ve stokların yüksek seyretmesi, özellikle sanayici açısından ham- madde temininde daha dengeli bir tablo yara- tabilir. Ancak bu rahat arz görünümüne rağmen piyasanın yönünü yalnızca miktar belirlemeye- cek. Göymen’in değerlendirmesinde öne çıkan kritik unsur, kalite olacak. FİYATLARDA KALİTE BELİRLEYİCİ OLACAK Dünya üretimindeki düşüş, özellikle Kanada ve Avrupa Birliği gibi yüksek kaliteli makarnalık buğday tedarikçilerinde yaşanacağı için, ka- liteli ürün arzında daha hassas bir denge olu- şabilir. Bu nedenle fiyatların yönünde toplam üretim miktarından çok, Kanada, Türkiye ve Av- rupa’daki ürün kalitesi belirleyici olacak.