BBM Magazine Issue-Sayı: 61 February - Şubat 2023

BBM • FEBRUARY - ŞUBAT 2023 44 INTERVIEW • RÖPORTAJ Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, exports of grain from Ukraine, as well as food and fertilizers from Rus- sia, have been significantly hit. The disruption in supplies pushed soaring prices even higher and contributed to a global food crisis. Both countries are among the most im- portant producers of agricultural commodities in the world. They are net exporters of agricultural products and are lead- ing suppliers of foodstuffs and fertilizers to global markets. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allows for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, was extended for an additional 120 days beginning November 19, 2022. The renewal of the deal has eased the grain market, however, the ensuing blackouts in the Ukrainian ports, which remain for the most part inoperable due to the shelling by Russian troops of gas and electricity infrastructure across the county, spiked concerns about the actual availability of Ukrainian grain through the ports. What are the likely effects of a possible termination of the deal? Will the grain market continue to be volatile in 2023? What is the outlook for Ukrainian and global grain produc- tion? Is there enough grain supply to feed the world? In an exclusive interview to Miller Magazine, Joe Glauber, in- terim Secretary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and former chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), answered these important questions. Mr. Glauber is also a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Glauber spent over 30 years at the USDA including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. He is the author of numerous studies on agricultural insurance, agricultural policy, and agricultural trade issues. There are concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Why extension of the deal important for global food security? What are the likely effects of a pos- sible termination of the deal? The partial re-opening of the Black Sea ports for Ukraine grain exports has helped contribute to lower grain prices in global markets and increased prices for Ukraine producers. Yet, while helpful, trade remains far below a year ago levels. We saw how with Russia’s temporary suspension of the agreement in early November caused wheat prices to spike 6% or more. GRAIN MARKETS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE We have seen a dramatic increase in the prices of fer- tilizer. Given that it is the biggest input in crop produc- tion, how do you think grain producers will cope with high fertilizer prices? How the current price of fertilizer will affect farmers’ planting decisions? Do you think high fertilizer prices are a risk to world food security? High fertilizer prices have a negative impact on grower margins. We have already seen how higher fertilizer prices önemli ölçüde etkiledi. Karadeniz tahıl arzındaki kesinti, tahıl fiyatlarının daha da yükselmesine neden oldu ve küresel gıda krizini daha da körükledi. Ukrayna’nın üç Karadeniz limanı üzerinden tahıl ihracatına izin veren Karadeniz Tahıl Anlaşması, 19 Kasım 2022’de 120 günlüğüne uzatıldı. Anlaşmanın yenilenmesi tahıl piyasalarını şimdilik rahatlattı. Ancak savaşın devam etmesi, liman altya- pısının saldırılarda zarar görmesi, artan navlun maliyetleri ve Moskova’nın anlaşmayı yeniden askıya alma ihtimali, Karade- niz tahılının dünya piyasalarına erişimi konusunda soru işaret- leri doğuruyor. Anlaşmanın feshedilmesinin muhtemel etkileri neler olabi- lir? Tahıl piyasaları 2023’te de dalgalı olmaya devam edecek mi? Tahıl fiyatlarını etkileyecek temel faktörler neler? Dünya nüfusunu beslemek için yeterli tahıl arzı var mı? Bu kritik soruları, ABD Tarım Bakanlığı’nın (USDA) eski Baş Ekonomisti Joe Glauber’e sorduk. 50 yılı aşkın bir süredir tahıl