BBM 73 - February 2024

BBM • FEBRUARY - ŞUBAT 2024 52 ARTICLE • MAKALE 2023 yılında dünya ticaretinde yaşanan yüzde 5’lik daral- manın yanı sıra yaşanan koridor krizleri de maliyetleri yukarı çekti. Uzun vadede zorunlu güzergah değişiklikleriyle kar- şılaşabiliriz. Uygun maliyetli rotalar tercih sebebi olacaktır. Türkiye’den Kafkasya’ya, Hazar Denizi üzerinden Türkmenis- tan ve Kazakistan’a ve Çin’e ulaşan Hazar Geçişli Doğu-Batı Orta Koridor projesi, ‘İpek Yolu’nun günümüzdeki modern halidir. Bu güzergahın ciddi bir potansiyele sahip olduğunu hatırlamakta fayda var. KONTEYNER FIYATLARI VE NAVLUN YÜKSELIYOR Uzak Asya ülkeleri çıkışlı gemiler Kızıldeniz’den geçeme- yince Ümit Burnu’na yönelerek bütün Afrika’yı dolaşmak zo- runda kalıyor. Krizin başlamasından bu yana navlun fiyatları artış gösteriyor, konteyner endeksleri de son bir haftada yüz- de 15’in üzerinde yükseldi. Bu durum lojistiği yeniden sıkıntılı bir alan haline getirdi. Kimi armatörler, un ihracatında yüksek talebin olduğu Doğu Afrika bölgesinde servislerini durdurdu. Özellikle Uzak Asya ülkelerinin Avrupa pazarına yönelik ih- racatta zorlanacağı aşikar. Krizle birlikte gerek fiyat artışı, ge- global trade. The process seems to be at risk for Turkey, which has held the championship in global flour exports for 9 years. Immediate measures are needed to prevent price increases and supply crises. In addition to the 5% contraction in global trade in 2023, corridor crises have increased costs. Long-term mandatory route changes may be encountered. Cost-effective routes will be preferred. The Caspian Transit East-West Corridor project, connecting Turkey to the Caspian Sea via the Cas- pian Sea, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan to China, is the modern version of the Silk Road today. It is essential to re- member the significant potential of this route. RISING CONTAINER PRICES AND FREIGHT COSTS Ships originating from East Asian countries, unable to pass through the Red Sea, are forced to circumnavigate the entire African continent to reach the Cape of Good Hope. Since the start of the crisis, freight prices have increased, and container indices have risen by over 15% in the past week. This situation has once again made logistics a chal- lenging area. Some shipowners have suspended services, especially in the East African region, where there is high demand for wheat exports. It is evident that East Asian countries will face difficulties in exporting to the European market. Despite price increases and intensive measures in container shipping, some flexibility is beginning to emerge. However, it is predicted that the tension in the region will persist for an extended period. Turkey is the largest sup- plier in the region and should seize the opportunity arising from the potential loss of competitiveness by East Asia. THE EVER GIVEN CRISIS, AN EXAMPLE OF SEVERITY The crisis, reaching its peak with the Houthi attacks on ships entering the Red Sea, will have a significant impact on global trade. Leading container and shipping companies have announced that they will not use the Red Sea route until security is guaranteed. There is a substantial example to understand the extent of the danger. In March 2021, the crisis occurred when the 400-meter-long and 59-meter- wide giant ship ‘Ever Given’ ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking two-way traffic for six days. The closure of the ca- nal for a week resulted in daily losses of approximately $10 billion in global trade. The Ever Given crisis remains a clear example with all its consequences. Our country needs to take the necessary precautions for this new crisis and start working on initiatives to turn the crisis into an opportunity as soon as possible. I anticipate that the crisis will last at least three months. During this period, it is crucial to closely monitor the policies of major players like Russia dominating the global grain market. Container prices have suddenly jumped from $800 to $1800. In countries like Turkey, which import wheat, trade