SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has revised its 2024/25 Russian grain export forecasts, lowering its wheat export estimate to 45.9 million metric tons (MMT) from 47.6 MMT. Corn exports are now projected at 2.4 MMT, up from 2.2 MMT, while the barley export forecast remains unchanged at 2.4 MMT. The total export forecast for grains, pulses, and processed products has been reduced to 53.6 MMT from 55.4 MMT.

The reduction in wheat export estimates reflects a decrease in the crop forecast and increased intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture in market operations. 

In October, the wheat crop forecast was lowered to 81.5 MMT from 82.9 MMT due to rapidly declining yields in Siberia.

The export tax is rising as wheat prices increase, in line with the Russian Agriculture Ministry’s guidelines. The average price index used for weekly tax calculations rose to $222/MT in October from $213/MT. Each $10 increase in the price index results in a $7 increase in the export tax.

An additional factor impacting wheat exports this season is the Ministry of Agriculture's new policy, "Russian grain must be delivered to consumers by Russian exporters only." This policy is expected to negatively impact many small and medium-sized exporters who source wheat domestically and sell it on an FOB basis to other firms.