The Turkish National Grain Council (UHK) anticipates a drought-induced decline in wheat production. Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade, a board member of the UHK, announced that the 2025 yield is expected to reach 18.6 million tons. Significant losses in yield are forecasted particularly in Southeastern and Central Anatolia. Highlighting the inadequacy of autumn and winter precipitation, Sade noted that April rains brought some hope, but stressed the need for cautious and planned production.
Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade
The first major forecast for wheat, one of Turkey’s most vital agricultural products, for the 2024–2025 production season was released by the National Grain Council (UHK). During his assessment at the Pre-Harvest Grain Congress held in Mardin, UHK Board Member Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade pointed to the current drought conditions in the country, announcing an expected decrease in wheat yield this year.
Sade reported that precipitation across the country was 33% below the long-term average and 38% lower than last year. He projected the wheat production for the 2024–2025 season to be approximately 18.65 million tons, which indicates a 6–7% decline compared to the long-term average.
Southeastern Anatolia Faces the Most Severe Drought
According to Prof. Dr. Sade, Southeastern Anatolia has emerged as the most severely drought-affected region. As of the end of March, the region had received only 179 mm of precipitation—almost half the amount recorded in the same period last year. The first half of April also failed to bring sufficient rain. This shortfall is expected to have a heavy impact on production, with anticipated wheat losses of 15% to 20% in Southeastern Anatolia.
A similar situation prevails in Central Anatolia, where only 121 mm of rainfall had been recorded by the end of March—48% below the long-term average. For this region, an 8% loss in yield is projected.
Black Sea and Marmara Regions Relatively Advantageous
Turkey’s northern regions, the Black Sea and Marmara, have been relatively less affected by the drought. The Black Sea region has seen a slight increase in sowing areas and is expected to experience around a 5% rise in production. Although rainfall in the Marmara region has dropped by 23%, no significant threat to production has yet emerged.
In the Aegean region, sowing areas are expected to remain unchanged; however, a 6% yield loss is forecasted due to insufficient rainfall.
Inadequate Autumn and Winter Precipitation
Prof. Dr. Sade emphasized that the rainfall deficit since the beginning of the season has negatively impacted wheat production. Throughout the autumn and winter, almost all regions received precipitation levels below both the long-term average and last year’s totals. In fact, some areas recorded the lowest rainfall in 65 years.
According to Sade, the low rainfall levels observed in February, March, and April—crucial months for wheat development—led to delayed sowing and stunted plant growth in many regions. This situation may have mitigated the impact of frost damage in some areas.
Despite the challenges, the increase in rainfall during the first half of April brought a glimmer of hope for the sector. A total of 48 mm of rain fell nationwide during the first 14 days of April—above the long-term average. As a result, the overall precipitation deficit dropped from 33% to 26%. Particularly in transitional zones of Central Anatolia, the Aegean, and the Mediterranean regions, the positive effects of this rainfall have begun to appear.
Meteorological forecasts suggest that the second half of April and the month of May will also be rainy. If this materializes, it could help offset yield losses in certain regions.
Smart Agriculture and Income Insurance Come to the Fore
Speaking at the UHK Congress, Prof. Dr. Sade also issued important warnings for producers. He highlighted significant declines in groundwater levels and irrigation sources and stressed the need to aim for optimal yields in agriculture. He urged farmers to avoid random irrigation and fertilization practices, to utilize agricultural consultancy services, and to expand the use of income protection insurance.
“Traditional methods must be abandoned; each season should be assessed on its own terms,” said Sade. “A production approach based on observation and technology is now a necessity.”