M. Aykut Göymen
Chairman, Turkish Pasta Industrialists Association

Türkiye’s pasta industry today holds a strong position in global markets. Our country exports nearly 1.5 million tonnes of pasta and accounts for around 26% of global pasta exports. Domestic consumption stands at approximately 700,000 tonnes. Taken together, this means we are talking about a total production volume of more than 2.2 million tonnes.

This success is not accidental. Türkiye’s high-quality durum wheat production potential, the manufacturing capability of our industrialists, the sector’s ability to adapt to export markets and the experience built over many years have carried our industry to the upper ranks of the global league. Over the past decade, we have achieved significant growth in pasta exports. In 2025, exports reached approximately 1.435 million tonnes. This is an important indicator of how competitive the Turkish pasta industry has become on a global scale.

However, at this point, we cannot rely solely on past achievements. Conditions in world trade are changing. Our production capacity is increasing, protectionist tendencies are gaining strength in export markets, new investments are coming on stream in competitor countries and raw material costs are becoming more decisive for our competitiveness. Therefore, our sector must prepare for the coming period with a more strategic perspective.

CAPACITY IS RISING, MAKING THE MARKET QUESTION MORE CRITICAL

The installed capacity of Türkiye’s pasta sector is around 3.3 million tonnes. With new investments and production lines expected to come on stream in 2025 and 2026, this capacity is projected to approach 4 million tonnes. At first glance, this may appear to be a positive development that reflects the strength of our industry. However, this increase in capacity also raises a very important question: will Türkiye be able to find new markets beyond its current export level?

Today, we export nearly 1.5 million tonnes of pasta. Increasing this figure further is, of course, one of our sector’s goals. But we also have to recognize that competition in global markets is becoming increasingly difficult. Many countries are now moving toward protecting their domestic industries. Import duties, local production investments and protectionist policies are making market access more complex for exporting countries.

We see that investments in pasta production are continuing, particularly across the African continent. Moreover, these are not small-scale investments; they are large-capacity projects with serious production potential. These developments show that Türkiye may face more intense competition in its traditional export markets in the coming period.

Therefore, we must no longer focus only on the question of “how much can we produce?” We must also ask: “To which markets can we sell this production, at what cost and under what competitive conditions?”

RAW MATERIAL COSTS ARE AT THE CENTER OF EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS

One of the most critical factors determining the competitiveness of the pasta industry is raw material cost. It is strategically important for Türkiye to produce pasta using its own durum wheat and turn this production into value-added exports. However, for this to be sustainable, our production costs must be at a level that allows us to compete with the rest of the world.

When we look at the cost structures in competitor countries, we see that Türkiye is at a disadvantage in some key inputs. High costs in fertilizer, diesel and other production inputs increase the production costs of our farmers. Since Türkiye is dependent on imported raw materials for fertilizer production, it is not easy to completely eliminate this cost pressure in the short term. But this does not mean that nothing can be done.

On the contrary, farmer support mechanisms need to be designed in a more effective, timely and targeted manner. Because it is not possible to strengthen the competitiveness of industrialists without reducing farmers’ costs. When raw material costs are high, industrialists struggle to offer competitive prices in international markets. This directly affects our export performance. As a sector, we respect the labor and efforts of our farmers. We know that farmers’ production costs and labor must be taken into account in price assessments. At the same time, however, we must not forget that we are competing in world markets. For this reason, we need a balanced model that protects producers, enables industrialists to access raw materials under competitive conditions and supports our export strength.

WE SHOULD BE A SECTOR THAT EXPORTS WITH ITS OWN RAW MATERIAL

For Türkiye’s pasta industry, the healthiest model is to process the high-quality durum wheat grown by our own producers and offer it to world markets as a value-added product. Of course, sourcing raw materials from other countries is theoretically possible. But we know that this is not always a sustainable or reliable path.

Supplying raw materials from countries such as Russia, Ukraine or Canada depends on global market conditions, export taxes, freight costs, exchange-rate movements and the domestic policies of those countries. A supply channel that appears suitable today may lose its competitiveness tomorrow due to a tax, quota or another regulation. In addition, every country may take different measures to protect its own industry.

For this reason, Türkiye’s priority should be to protect and develop its own agricultural production strength. Remaining strong in durum wheat production is strategically important not only for farmers, but also for industry and exports. A pasta industry that can produce with its own raw material will be more resilient against external shocks.

THE WAY SUPPORTS ARE IMPLEMENTED MATTERS AS MUCH AS THEIR AMOUNT

Farmer supports are highly important for balancing production costs. However, we need to discuss not only the amount of support, but also how these supports are implemented.

In the past, we experienced serious implementation problems with some support mechanisms. For this reason, we believe that supports should definitely be linked to producer receipts. Supports that are not based on producer receipts create a heavy operational burden for industrialists. Accounting teams in factories are forced to process thousands, even tens of thousands, of invoices one by one. Even a single error in an invoice can create serious problems in processes such as VAT refunds.

This causes both a loss of time and an increase in costs. Support mechanisms must be simple, auditable and applicable. A system based on producer receipts offers a healthier structure for producers, industrialists and the public sector alike.

SUPPORTS SHOULD BE PAID ON TIME

Another important dimension of support payments is timing. The period when farmers need support the most is the production period. If supports are paid late, producers are forced to calculate their costs as if they had not received any support at all. This increases the financing burden on farmers.

Paying the previous year’s support in the fifth month of the following year creates a serious cash-flow problem for farmers. Yet farmers have to purchase fertilizer, diesel, seed and other inputs during the production period. Being able to benefit from support at the time they face these costs is far more meaningful for production planning.

Therefore, supports need to be reconsidered in terms of both amount and timing. Support paid on time reduces cost pressure on producers and indirectly supports the industry’s access to competitive raw materials.

PROTECTIONISM IS INCREASING IN EXPORT MARKETS

Another important risk facing Türkiye’s pasta industry is rising protectionism in export markets. Some countries are building their own factories, some are introducing import duties and others are implementing policies that encourage domestic production. This makes market access more difficult for exporting countries.

Iraq is a notable example in this regard. You may be strong in a market for a long time, but when that country establishes its own production capacity or introduces measures against imports, the existing trade balance can change. A similar picture may also emerge for the pasta sector.

For this reason, it is not enough to build our export strategy solely around existing markets. We must increase market diversification, monitor opportunities in new geographies and strengthen the cost structure that will protect our competitive advantage.

THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SUCCESS DEPENDS ON COMMON STRATEGIC VISION

Türkiye’s pasta industry is in a strong position today. Our share in global exports, our production capacity and our industrial experience clearly demonstrate this. However, for this strength to be sustainable, producers, industrialists and public policies must move in the same direction.

Preventing farmers from moving away from production, protecting durum wheat cultivation, enabling industrialists to access competitive raw materials and diversifying export markets must all be addressed together. Any disruption in one of these areas affects the entire sector.

What we need today is not short-term solutions, but a long-term strategy. Türkiye’s pasta industry should aim not only to preserve today’s export success, but also to prepare itself more strongly for the global competitive conditions of the coming years.

With proper planning, effective support mechanisms, competitive production costs and a strong market strategy, Türkiye can maintain its leading position in pasta exports. But to achieve this, we must act today and address the structural needs of the sector with a holistic perspective.