The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has warned that persistent heat and severe water deficits across western and central Europe have significantly reduced yield expectations for summer crops. EU yield forecasts have been revised sharply downwards, with some crops now expected to yield up to 14% below the five-year average.

Prolonged hot and dry weather continues to put pressure on agricultural production across Europe. According to the August 2026 edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin, summer crop development has been severely affected, particularly in western and central parts of the continent.

High temperatures and exceptional water deficits have reduced crop fertility and biomass accumulation, impaired grain filling and accelerated premature senescence. Depending on the region, the impacts range from moderate yield reductions to severe production losses. In some of the worst-affected areas, local crop failure is now considered likely.

Maize yield expectations revised downwards

Grain maize is among the crops most severely affected by the adverse weather conditions. In France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania, high temperatures combined with insufficient rainfall hit summer crops during the critical flowering and yield formation stages.

The adverse conditions previously identified in western France, northern and central Italy, south-western Germany, southern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania intensified during August. The JRC expects yields to decline significantly in these regions, with local crop failure possible in the hardest-hit production areas.

Limited irrigation water availability and restrictions on water use have further aggravated crop stress in several regions. Against this backdrop, yield forecasts for all summer crops across the EU have been revised sharply downwards. For some crops, projected yields are now up to 14% below the five-year average.

Production under pressure in Benelux and the Balkans

In the Benelux countries, Slovenia and Croatia, increasingly hot and dry conditions since late June affected summer crops during critical development stages. Yield expectations have been lowered, particularly for maize, while more substantial losses are anticipated in areas where irrigation is unavailable.

Below-average rainfall has also resulted in low soil moisture levels in southern Ireland, northern Germany and Denmark. Although no significant crop damage has yet been detected, the JRC warned that summer crops could be affected if dry conditions persist.

Soil moisture deficits have locally affected summer crops in southern Poland, western Ukraine and western Bulgaria. However, the impact at national level remains limited due to more favourable growing conditions in other parts of these countries.

Extreme heat alert for southern Türkiye

The JRC also highlighted locally very high temperatures in northern Spain and southern Türkiye. According to the bulletin, the impact on crop conditions has so far remained limited. Nevertheless, persistent heat represents a risk that needs to be closely monitored in the region.

Drought has affected not only field crops but also grassland productivity and pasture availability. The marked deterioration in pastures is raising concerns over fodder supplies, particularly for livestock producers.

More balanced outlook for winter cereals

In contrast to the deteriorating outlook for summer crops, the yield prospects for winter cereals remain more balanced. With harvesting largely completed, winter cereal yields across the EU are expected to remain around the five-year average.

Adverse weather earlier in the season had already reduced yield expectations in Spain, France, Germany, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. Subsequent heatwaves accelerated crop ripening and harvesting in several regions.

Cooler and wetter weather forecast across much of western and central Europe could provide some relief to summer crops. However, the JRC underlined that the improvement is likely to come too late to offset the yield losses already sustained.