BLOG

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.

Robust global production and elevated stock levels are keeping grain prices under pressure, while weaker income expectations are accelerating farmers’ shift toward oilseeds such as sunflower and soybeans, according to Saban Buttanrı, CEO of Agrolino Grains and Oil Seeds.

At IAOM MEA 2025 in Jeddah, millers, automation experts and grain analysts examined how AI is reshaping purchasing, quality, traceability and market risk and why data governance and human judgement still matter.

Despite recent bumper crops in key origins, the global durum wheat sector remains fragile. At the World Durum and Pasta Forum 2025 in Rome, leading analysts and industry executives warned that weather shocks, shrinking premiums over soft wheat, rising logistics costs, and shifting consumption patterns are undermining stability.