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Speaking at the IDMA Global Grain & Milling Forum in Istanbul, Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council, said global wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast to fall by 3% from the previous year’s peak, but overall supplies are expected to remain ample thanks to record carry-in stocks. Karavaytsev highlighted El Niño risks, smaller crops in major exporting countries, weaker import needs in some key destinations and the growing importance of freight, logistics and currency movements in shaping global wheat trade.

USDA projects Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat and barley crops to rebound sharply on the back of stronger autumn and winter rainfall, with wheat output rising to 19.8 million tonnes and barley to 7.0 million tonnes.

Despite recent bumper crops in key origins, the global durum wheat sector remains fragile. At the World Durum and Pasta Forum 2025 in Rome, leading analysts and industry executives warned that weather shocks, shrinking premiums over soft wheat, rising logistics costs, and shifting consumption patterns are undermining stability.