“While Brazil remains a dominant force in global agriculture, its wheat sector faces a unique set of challenges shaped by climatic limitations, rising domestic demand, and continued dependence on imports. Despite shrinking cultivation areas, improvements in productivity, evolving import flows within and beyond MERCOSUR, liberalized trade measures, and EMBRAPA’s development of “tropical wheat” varieties are reshaping the country’s wheat strategy. Alongside these structural dynamics, Brazil’s rich bread culture, shifting consumer preferences, and a growing pasta market highlight the broader socio-cultural dimensions of its wheat economy.”

Although Brazil is a prominent global player in agricultural production, the country still faces structural challenges when it comes to wheat. Climatic constraints, rising domestic demand, and a dependence on imports shape the core dynamics of Brazil’s wheat economy. According to recent reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), CEPEA (Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics), and the FAO, Brazil’s wheat production, consumption, and import system are guided by a series of critical economic and policy decisions.

Higher Yields, Shrinking Area

For the 2024/25 marketing year, USDA forecasts Brazil’s wheat production at 9.6 million metric tons (MMT), a 2% decrease from earlier estimates. This decline is largely attributed to delayed planting in key producing states such as Rio Grande do Sul, as well as farmers’ growing preference for alternative crops.

CEPEA paints a slightly different picture. Its data estimates 2024/25 production at 7.89 MMT, representing a 2.6% year-on-year drop. The harvested area fell by 11.9%, reaching 3.06 million hectares. However, productivity saw a significant 10.6% increase, with yields averaging 2.58 tons per hectare. These results highlight that, despite climate-related disadvantages, Brazil is making gains in agricultural efficiency through investment in technology and new crop varieties.

Domestic Demand Remains Strong

Brazil’s annual wheat consumption exceeds 12 million tons. This sustained demand is driven by population growth, urbanization, and the expansion of the food industry. The country’s high consumption of flour and flour-based products maintains strong pressure on domestic supply, often pushing local production to its limits.

According to USDA analyses, Brazil meets only 65–75% of its wheat consumption with domestic production. This shortfall keeps Brazil firmly in the category of net wheat importers.

Sourcing from Both Inside and Outside MERCOSUR

Imports play a critical role in balancing Brazil’s wheat consumption needs. For the 2023/24 marketing year, USDA estimates imports at 5.5 MMT. However, projections for 2024/25 indicate a decline to 4.5 MMT. This reduction reflects a partial recovery in domestic output, alongside policy shifts and favorable pricing in international markets.

While Argentina remains the primary supplier, Brazil also imports wheat from non- South American Common Market (MERCOSUR) countries. Between 2018 and 2022, approximately 8% of Brazil’s wheat and flour imports came from outside the regional trade bloc. The United States, in particular, is emerging as a significant supplier. Temporary reductions in import tariffs and expanded trade agreements have enabled Brazil to diversify its wheat supply chain.

Grain Trade Policies: Liberalization and Risk Management

Brazil’s wheat trade policies generally align with its food security strategy, which is heavily reliant on imports. According to FAO, the government periodically waives tariffs on wheat imported from outside MERCOSUR to help stabilize domestic prices and ensure supply.

Moreover, the FAO forecasts a 5.6% decline in global grain trade in 2025. This contraction is linked to decreasing demand from China and export restrictions implemented by major producer countries. In this context, import-dependent nations like Brazil are increasingly seeking alternative trade routes to secure their supply chains.

Looking Ahead: The “Tropical Wheat” Initiative

Brazil’s Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) is developing “tropical wheat” varieties designed to thrive in warmer and more humid climates. These innovations may play a pivotal role in reducing Brazil’s reliance on foreign wheat. If successful, the initiative could support a more resilient domestic wheat economy over the long term.

Brazil’s wheat sector is a complex system shaped by advances in agricultural innovation and an open-market import structure. Climatic challenges, strong domestic demand, and import dependency continue to drive government support programs and trade policy reforms. Notably, EMBRAPA’s tropical wheat research offers a promising path toward self-sufficiency, potentially transforming Brazil from a major wheat importer into a more self-reliant producer.

Brazil’s Bread Culture

Brazil has a bread culture that attracts attention with its rich cultural heritage and regional diversity. In this cuisine where European, African and indigenous traditions are blended, various breads prepared with different flour types and baking techniques are an indispensable part of daily life.

The Most Popular Bread: Pão Francês

Brazil’s most widely consumed bread, pão francês—literally “French bread”—is inspired by the French baguette but has a shorter, rounder form that gives it a distinct identity. This bread is known by various names across different regions of the country, including pãozinho, pão de sal, and cacetinho. In São Paulo alone, around 18 million units are produced daily, and it is eaten at every meal, from breakfast to dinner. In fact, March 21 is celebrated as “Pão Francês Day” in Brazil.

Pão de Queijo: Pride of Minas Gerais

Pão de queijo, or “cheese bread,” is a specialty from the state of Minas Gerais. These small, round rolls are crisp on the outside and soft and stretchy on the inside. The small, round cheese bread pão de queijo, one of Brazil’s famous traditional delicacies, is prepared with tapioca starch instead of wheat flour. This special starch makes the bread soft and supple on the inside and slightly crispy on the outside. Tapioca starch is derived from the root of the cassava plant native to Brazil and is gluten-free, making the bread particularly suitable for gluten-free diets. Pão de queijo, which is similar to the pita bread in our country, can be consumed plain or enriched with fresh herbs such as thyme, basil, rosemary or parsley. The main ingredients include sweet and sour cassava flour, eggs, milk and usually Minas cheese. The aroma that these herbs add to the cheese takes the flavour of the bread to the next level. It is usually served hot for breakfast and is also preferred as a light snack with coffee at other times of the day. This gluten-free snack is preferred for breakfast and snacks all over Brazil.

Pão na Chapa: A Morning Ritual in São Paulo

A breakfast staple in São Paulo, pão na chapa is made by grilling slices of pão francês with butter. Often served with requeijão (a creamy Brazilian cheese spread), it’s a favorite morning option for locals and is commonly paired with a hot cup of coffee to start the day.

Corn and Cassava-Based Breads

In Brazil’s rural areas, especially in the North and Northeast, breads made from corn and cassava are widespread. Bolo de fubá—a cake made from finely ground cornmeal—is commonly served with coffee. Manuê is a sweet, spiced bread made with molasses and reflects the Afro-Brazilian culinary influence.

Types of Flour Used

The types of flour used in Brazilian breads reflect the country’s agricultural diversity:

• Wheat Flour: The primary ingredient in traditional breads like pão francês.
• Cassava Flour (Farinha de Mandioca): A gluten-free staple used in pão de queijo and savory dishes like farofa.
• Cornmeal (Fubá): Commonly used in cakes such as bolo de fubá.
• Tapioca Starch: Used to make beiju de tapioca, a crepe-like dish.

Bread Consumption Habits

In 2020, Brazil’s per capita bread consumption was recorded at approximately 2.88 kilograms. However, this number may be higher when considering urban centers and the variety of bread types consumed.

In recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in the consumption of sliced and industrially produced breads, particularly in the Northern and Northeastern regions. Consumers are increasingly drawn to whole grain and functional breads for their nutritional value and convenience.

Among women, interest in breads with seeds and whole grains is growing, while male consumers tend to prefer sweeter and more energy-dense varieties.

Brazil’s bread culture is a rich mosaic shaped by historical roots, regional diversity, and evolving consumer preferences. Alongside traditional recipes, a modern shift toward healthier and more convenient options reflects the country’s dynamic culinary landscape.

Brazil’s Pasta Sector

Brazil’s pasta sector is dynamic in terms of both production and consumption. In recent years, rising health awareness and shifts in consumer preferences have led to significant transformations within the industry.

Pasta Production and Consumption

In 2024, Brazil’s pasta market generated approximately USD 4.01 billion in revenue, with a per capita revenue of USD 18.43. The market is expected to grow annually by 6.64% through 2029.

In terms of consumption, the average per capita pasta consumption in 2024 is projected to be 10.7 kg. As health consciousness rises, demand for gluten-free and vegetable-based pasta products in Brazil has increased. Additionally, interest in organic and natural products is growing. These trends have prompted producers to expand their product lines and increase R&D investments.

Pasta Exports and Imports

In 2022, Brazil exported pasta worth USD 21.3 million. The primary export markets included the United States, Uruguay, Colombia, Venezuela, and Chile. In the same period, pasta imports amounted to USD 44.9 million, with key import sources being Italy, China, the Netherlands, the United States, and South Korea.

As of August 2024, Brazil’s pasta exports were recorded at USD 2.71 million, while imports stood at USD 5.1 million. These figures represent a year-on-year decrease of 4.06% and 2.12%, respectively.

Market Structure and Leading Companies

Brazil’s pasta market is dominated by a few major companies. M. Dias Branco holds the leading position with a 36% market share, followed by J. Macedo (12.5%), Selmi (8.6%), Santa Amália (7.0%), and Vilma (4.9%).

The market is particularly sensitive to price due to the high demand for low-cost products. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in premium and specialty pasta varieties. This trend has encouraged producers to diversify their offerings and introduce innovative products.

Brazil’s pasta sector continues to grow by adapting to changing consumer preferences and health trends. The expansion of the domestic market and the pursuit of export opportunities are critical for the industry’s future. Producers are expected to gain a competitive edge by offering innovative and health-focused products.