Global durum wheat production is expected to exceed consumption for a third consecutive season, but supplies of high-protein grain are tightening after quality problems in several producing regions. Speaking at Grain Academy in Sofia, analyst Rossella Polito warned that weak farm returns could also discourage planting for the next crop.

Durum wheat buyers face a widening divide between abundant global supply and limited availability of high-protein grain, as weather-related quality problems affect crops across several major producing regions.

Rossella Polito, durum wheat market analyst at Black Silo Commodity Consulting and Fryer’s Reports, told Grain Academy in Sofia on October 22 that the 2026/27 global balance looked comparatively comfortable. But lower protein levels in parts of southern Europe and North Africa, combined with concerns over Canadian crop quality, could support premiums for grain meeting higher specifications.

The International Grains Council’s October estimate puts global durum production at approximately 38.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, slightly above the previous year. Production is expected to exceed consumption for a third consecutive season, with closing stocks rebuilding to around 10 million tonnes.

That broader supply picture masks differences in the quality and location of the crop, she said. Buyers requiring high-protein durum may face a narrower choice of origins even as lower-grade supplies remain available.

Rossella Polito

PROTEIN PREMIUMS WIDEN

Polito said protein levels were generally low across parts of southern Europe, Türkiye and North Africa. Rain during harvest had also affected quality in Greece, while the Italian crop was generally good but had lower average protein. France was an exception, with a smaller crop than the previous year but exceptionally good quality, she said. Kazakhstan also had high-quality durum, although its production was lower and exporters faced logistical constraints.

The distinction is already visible in Italian prices. Data presented by Polito for Foggia showed durum with at least 15% protein at €338 per tonne on October 12, compared with €279 per tonne for conventional quality with at least 11% protein. Polito said strong demand and limited supplies could continue to support higher-quality grain.

CANADIAN QUALITY REMAINS UNDER SCRUTINY

Canada’s durum crop is expected to remain large by historical standards, despite a reduction in planted area. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate put production at around 6.4 million tonnes. Polito said her assessment was that the final figure could be closer to 7 million tonnes, although the official estimate had not yet been finalised.

Heavy rain during the first half of September delayed harvesting in major producing areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta, raising concerns that some grain could be downgraded. Early sample results pointed to quality issues, while the final assessment remained dependent on further testing.

Canadian durum stocks have been rebuilding following several years of tight carryover after the 2021 drought. A larger final crop estimate could increase supplies further, Polito said, although the quantity meeting top-grade specifications remained a separate question.

In the United States, durum production fell by approximately 24% to 1.76 million tonnes, while planted area declined by about 21%. Harvest conditions were generally more favourable than in Canada, and average quality was good, she said.

TÜRKIYE HOLDS SUBSTANTIAL SUPPLY

Polito estimated Türkiye’s 2026 durum crop at around 4.5 million tonnes. Together with carryover stocks estimated by local sources at up to 1.5 million tonnes, this would put total supply at around 6 million tonnes. Whether Türkiye returns to the international market with larger export volumes will depend on price competitiveness, Polito said. If Turkish FOB offers become competitive again, additional exports could influence the global market, particularly for medium-quality durum.

EUROPE’S PRODUCTION SHIFTS EAST

Polito said EU durum production was estimated at around 7.7 million tonnes in 2026, down 11% from the previous year, based on the figures used in her presentation. Over a longer period, durum production has shifted within Europe. Planted area has contracted in traditional western producers including Italy, France and Spain, while several Central and Eastern European countries have expanded output. Higher production costs, returns considered insufficient by farmers and reduced support payments were among the reasons for the decline in western Europe, she said.

Italy’s imports from other EU origins rose from 820,000 tonnes in 2021/22 to 1.28 million tonnes in 2025/26. Greece and other European suppliers have contributed to that trade. However, with production lower in several European countries in 2026, Italy may need to source more durum from outside the EU.

BLACK SEA DISRUPTION LIMITS KAZAKH OPTIONS

Polito said logistics were another constraint for buyers seeking high-quality grain. Kazakh durum exports traditionally moving through Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports have faced disruption. Alternative routes towards the Baltic have also encountered pressure as other commodities compete for port and rail capacity. Georgia’s Poti port remained an alternative outlet, but volumes were limited, she said.

The difficulties could affect competition in North African tenders, where buyers specify minimum quality requirements. Depending on quality and price, Canadian and US suppliers, as well as other eligible origins, could benefit.

PLANTING DECISIONS CARRY RISK FOR 2027

Polito said the next major question was how farmers would respond to the relationship between durum prices and production costs. In Canada, durum lost its usual cash-price premium over spring wheat for part of 2026. In southern Alberta, feed wheat was also priced above high-quality durum for several months before the relationship reversed in October. The weaker price incentive contributed to lower durum acreage this year. If the premium does not recover sufficiently before the next planting decisions, Canadian farmers could reduce area again, she said.

European growers face a similar calculation. Polito said recent price gains had not resolved concerns among farmers who considered returns insufficient to cover higher costs. Further reductions in durum area could affect supply beyond the current season.