Facing a severe water crisis, Iraq has decided to significantly reduce its wheat and barley cultivation after last year’s record harvest. This move is expected to reverse the sharp decline in flour imports seen in the previous season and bring Iraq—already the world’s second-largest flour importer—back to a stronger position in global markets.

The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture announced that major cuts will be made in wheat and barley planting due to the country’s water reserves falling to critical levels. Ministry advisor Mahdi al-Qaisi stated that total water reserves have dropped below 10 billion cubic meters and that the country has shifted “from a temporary water shortage to a chronic water crisis.”

Under the new winter planting plan, wheat and barley cultivation will be limited only to areas with direct access to river water.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Iraq produced about 6 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 season—well above the five-year average of 4.5 million tons. However, USDA’s latest projections indicate that production in 2025/26 could fall to around 4.4 million tons due to reduced planting areas and water scarcity.

Last year’s record harvest had also influenced Iraq’s flour trade. The country, which is the world’s second-largest flour importer, brought in over 2 million tons (wheat equivalent) of flour during the 2023/24 season. But in 2024/25, with increased domestic supply, imports dropped to as low as 1.2 million tons. With this season’s wheat output expected to decline, Iraq is projected to raise its flour imports again to around 1.7 million tons to meet domestic demand.