The world is heading for a third consecutive durum wheat surplus in 2026/27, but pasta millers should not assume that ample grain will mean cheap grain of the quality they need, Areté senior market analyst Filippo Bertuzzi told the Agro Food Summit in Mersin. Rising prices for other grains, farmers withholding durum from sale and tighter supplies of high-protein grades could all support prices despite comfortable global stocks.

Areté expects global durum production to increase by 600,000 tonnes from 2025/26, exceeding consumption for a third straight season. Bertuzzi forecast ending stocks to rise by 1.7 million tonnes and the global stock-to-use ratio to gain four percentage points. “At the level of supply and demand, this is not a stressed market,” Bertuzzi said. The same outlook points to slower international trade: Areté expects shipments to decline by about 1.1 million tonnes as stronger crops reduce import needs in key buying regions.

North Africa is central to that forecast. Production across the region has risen for a third consecutive year and is expected to reach its highest level since 2018, limiting demand from countries that normally rely on imported durum. Bertuzzi expected only a small change in the EU’s overall import requirement.

Output trends among exporters are less uniform. Canada and the United States have reduced durum acreage and face lower expected yields. Türkiye, meanwhile, has recovered from last season’s poor yields despite fewer plantings. Even with smaller North American crops, Bertuzzi expects stocks there to grow because weaker exports will leave more grain in inventory.

The figures suggest there is no overall shortage of durum wheat. But Bertuzzi said the comfortable supply outlook could hide two important risks for millers: durum prices may be supported by stronger prices for competing crops, while supplies of the high-protein wheat needed for pasta production could remain tight.

DURUM PREMIUM NARROWS AS OTHER GRAINS RALLY

Durum prices fell through much of 2025/26, but major benchmarks began to rise from three-year lows reached around June and July. Bertuzzi said durum had been slower to respond than corn, common wheat, spring wheat and barley to the recent rally across grains.

That difference has narrowed the premium farmers normally receive for growing durum. In Canada and the United States, Areté’s price comparisons showed durum trading below spring wheat from June or July. Bertuzzi said North American growers were already responding by holding back durum or declining to fix a selling price, while marketing other crops such as canola and spring wheat.

The effect on acreage will take longer to emerge in North America, where the next planting decisions are still months away. European growers will make their decisions sooner. In southern Italy, options to replace durum are limited; in the north, farmers have more crop choices and higher yields per hectare. A small durum premium could therefore have a greater effect on northern planting decisions, Bertuzzi said. He expects rising prices elsewhere in the grain complex to provide support to durum, even though its own supply balance remains comfortable. 

ITALY’S PROTEIN SHORTFALL CHANGES THE BUYING CALCULATION

Quality adds a second pressure. Bertuzzi said abundant rainfall, good yields and reduced fertiliser use had lowered protein levels in Italy’s durum crop. He put the national average at around 12.5%, while durum with 15% protein, sought for premium pasta, represented only a small share of harvested volume.

The resulting demand for higher-protein wheat has encouraged Italian millers to look abroad. Bertuzzi said imports accelerated sharply in June, with around 280,000 tonnes entering Italy that month. He pointed to Canada and Australia as origins supplying protein and known quality while international prices remained relatively low.

The market is therefore distinguishing more sharply between grades. Bertuzzi expects the premium for high-protein durum to rise as millers seek a smaller pool of wheat that meets their specifications and farmers become less willing to sell those grades at current premiums.

France illustrates why availability and price must be considered together. Bertuzzi estimated that 72% of its 2026 durum harvest contained at least 14% protein, compared with a 64% average over 2021–25. That makes France an important potential source of quality durum for European buyers, but he said its export offers had so far been considered too expensive to generate substantial business.

Türkiye presents a different opportunity. Its durum yields have recovered, but average protein content was weak, Bertuzzi said. He expects much of the early harvested wheat above 14% protein to be consumed domestically. Turkish prices, including those quoted in Gaziantep, were not yet competitive for export against other origins. That could change if base prices or quality premiums move enough to attract importers seeking specific grades.

DELIVERED COST REMAINS THE FINAL TEST

Bertuzzi distinguished the durum market from the wider Black Sea grain trade. It does not depend on Russia and Ukraine as major durum exporters. It is nevertheless exposed to price movements in other grains and to higher shipping costs on routes used by durum suppliers, including North America.

Currency movements matter as well. Bertuzzi pointed to the euro’s weakening against the dollar since mid-August as an additional cost for European buyers purchasing internationally traded grain.

A comfortable global balance does not remove the main pricing risks facing millers. The 2026/27 balance may be ample, and North African demand may be quieter, but high-protein wheat, farmers’ willingness to sell and the delivered cost of each origin will determine what processors actually pay.