East Africa’s food security increasingly depends on whether grain can move safely, efficiently and affordably across trade corridors, Gerald Makau Masila, Executive Director of the Eastern Africa Grain Council, said at the IDMA Global Grain & Milling Forum in Istanbul. Masila said the region imports 90–95% of the wheat it consumes and remains highly exposed to disruptions in the Black Sea, Red Sea and Suez routes. He also underlined major opportunities for Türkiye and Africa to deepen cooperation in milling technology, flour, pasta, grain handling and investment.

Gerald Makau Masila, Executive Director of the Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC), offered a comprehensive assessment of the key challenges facing East Africa’s grain sector and food security during the IDMA Global Grain & Milling Forum in Istanbul. Masila said food security in East Africa must be understood across the full grain value chain, covering production, post-harvest handling, storage, processing, quality assurance, logistics, trade finance and regional market access.

Masila said East Africa is fully integrated into global grain trade and sources food grains from multiple origins, including the Black Sea, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Latin America and Australia. However, this integration also creates high exposure to global disruptions. For wheat in particular, Masila said the region is heavily import-dependent, importing between 90% and 95% of the wheat it consumes. This makes disruptions in the Black Sea, Red Sea and Suez corridor particularly damaging for regional food security.

He noted that the Black Sea/Russia–Suez–Mombasa route remains a key wheat corridor under pressure, while the Cape bypass can add around 6,000 nautical miles and 14–21 extra days per voyage. Freight rates on Asia–East Africa lanes have increased by 60–80%, while insurance costs for vessels transiting the Red Sea have risen by 30–50%.

FOOD SECURITY IS NOW A CORRIDOR ISSUE

For Masila, the issue is not only whether East Africa can produce enough grain, but whether that grain can move quickly, safely and affordably across ports, roads, borders and regional markets. He highlighted Mombasa’s role as a critical gateway for the region, with the port handling around 60% of East African Community grain imports. This makes port efficiency a regional food security issue. The Northern Corridor from Mombasa to Kampala, covering about 1,040 kilometers, costs around $70–90 per tonne, compared with $100–130 per tonne on the Central Corridor from Dar es Salaam to Kigali, which spans around 1,500 kilometers.

For landlocked countries, this creates a double burden. They are exposed first to ocean freight and insurance costs, and then to inland trucking costs. Masila said every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices can add $3–5 per tonne to trucking costs, while the recent conflict environment has added an estimated $8–12 per tonne on some corridors.

FREIGHT AND ENERGY SHOCKS REACH THE CONSUMER TABLE

Masila warned of a food security cascade, where rising geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea push up oil prices, increase diesel costs and raise trucking expenses before feeding into higher food prices. In East Africa, diesel prices have risen by 18–25%, corridor costs by 30–40%, and flour prices at mill gate by around 18%. Masila emphasized that the impact is felt directly in household budgets, as higher ocean freight, marine insurance, trucking, milling and distribution costs are passed through to consumers.

Retail wheat flour prices in East African cities are now 56–96% above the 2021 baseline, with landlocked cities such as Bujumbura, Kampala and Kigali among the hardest hit. Urban poor households now spend around 71% of their income on food, up from 58%, bringing them close to a food security crisis threshold.

REGIONAL TRADE IS KEY TO CLOSING EAST AFRICA’S CEREAL GAP

Masila highlighted the scale of East Africa’s cereal deficit through country-level trade figures. In 2025, Kenya imported $901 million worth of cereals and exported only $2 million, leaving a deficit of $899 million and making it the region’s largest cereal deficit market. Rwanda imported $313 million and exported $55 million, while Somalia imported $287 million and recorded no cereal exports, underlining its full dependence on imports and aid.

Tanzania stands out as the only East African Community country with a cereal trade surplus. It imported $404 million and exported $200 million in cereals in 2025, making it an important regional buffer.

Masila said this imbalance shows why regional trade is essential. In some cases, food may be available in one part of the region, but cannot move efficiently to deficit areas because of policy barriers, border restrictions, logistics costs and weak trade coordination.

Gerald Makau Masila, Executive Director of the Eastern Africa Grain Council

AFRICA IMPORTS $28.8 BILLION OF CEREALS

Masila also placed East Africa’s challenge in a wider African context. He noted that Africa remains structurally dependent on cereal imports, with the continent exporting only $1.56 billion worth of cereals against imports of $28.8 billion.

North Africa dominates the continent’s import bill. Egypt, Algeria and Morocco together account for 43% of Africa’s cereal import spending, while Egypt alone has a cereal import bill of $6.8 billion. By comparison, the East African Community represents only around 8% of Africa’s cereal imports, limiting the individual bargaining power of countries in the region.

Masila said this creates a strong case for coordinated purchasing. By pooling demand and improving coordination, African countries could increase leverage in global markets and reduce exposure to spot-market volatility.

AfCFTA CAN UNLOCK INTRA-AFRICAN GRAIN TRADE

Despite the challenges, Masila pointed to the African Continental Free Trade Area as one of the most important opportunities for strengthening food security. He said Africa is actively working to open borders and remove barriers to trade, which could allow more grain to move between countries and regions. He noted that full implementation of the AfCFTA could help expand intra-African cereal trade. However, he pointed to the 75% EAC rice tariff as a major structural barrier, arguing that it limits intra-African rice trade and pushes the region toward global imports. Reducing the tariff under AfCFTA preferential arrangements could make Tanzanian and Ugandan rice more competitive against supplies from outside the continent.

BUYERS DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE BLACK SEA

Masila said East African buyers are already adjusting their sourcing patterns in response to supply chain disruptions. The Russia/Black Sea share of EAC wheat imports has fallen from 38% to 22%, while Australia’s share has increased from 12% to 18%. The United States and Canada raised their combined share to 20% in 2025, and India has emerged as the leading rice supplier through a stable Indian Ocean route.

This diversification reflects a practical response to risk. Australia and India benefit from Indian Ocean routes with no Suez exposure, while the Americas offer reliable but more expensive routes around the Cape.

Türkiye is also part of this changing trade map. Masila noted that the country mills Russian wheat into flour and exports it to East Africa, describing this as an indirect but growing channel in regional grain trade.

STRATEGIC RESERVES AND LONG-TERM CONTRACTS ARE NEEDED

Masila called for stronger policy responses to reduce vulnerability. EAGC’s recommendations include building 90-day strategic grain reserves, compared with a current EAC average of under 30 days and as low as 8 days in Somalia.

The Council also recommends diversifying wheat sources and locking in 12-month contracts with suppliers to reduce spot-market exposure. Other recommendations include fast-tracking AfCFTA grain protocol ratification, reducing the EAC rice tariff and convening an emergency EAC-level meeting on reserve-building and AfCFTA cereals.

Masila also mentioned ongoing efforts to strengthen grain sector organization across Africa. He said EAGC is working with counterparts in North Africa to support the establishment of a similar organization there, with the longer-term aim of connecting North, West, East and Southern Africa into a broader African Grain Council framework.

TÜRKIYE AND AFRICA HAVE MAJOR COOPERATION POTENTIAL

During the question-and-answer session, Masila was asked about Türkiye-Africa cooperation, especially as Türkiye has become an important supplier of flour, pasta and milling technology to African markets. Masila said the relationship between Türkiye and Africa offers “opportunity every day.” He pointed to Türkiye’s geographic proximity to Africa and its strong position in grain handling, processing, baking, flour, feed, sunflower crushing and milling technologies. “Turkey is leading with grain handling technology, with processing, with baking,” Masila said, adding that African markets can access “European standards at Turkish prices.”

He said Africa needs more of this technology, and Turkish companies can play a much larger role in the continent’s food and grain sectors. He also pointed to opportunities not only in trade in flour and pasta, but also in grain production, processing, storage, regenerative agriculture and investment.

Masila said Africa has arable land, irrigation potential and financing opportunities. He encouraged Turkish investors to work with African partners in grain production and new regenerative technologies. He also noted that future trade may become more two-way, with pulses and other commodities produced in Africa moving toward Europe, using Türkiye as a gateway.

Masila also offered a concrete policy suggestion. He said Türkiye could consider export credit support, particularly for technology exports, to help Turkish companies sell grain handling, milling and processing technologies to African buyers.

On the African side, he said policy shifts are needed to attract investment, open markets and enable larger-scale projects that can serve the entire regional market rather than being restricted within individual national borders. This makes Türkiye-Africa cooperation highly relevant not only for trade, but also for food security, technology transfer and industrial development.