Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy
Director of IAOM Eurasia

Global flour exports remain steady in volume but volatile in value, reflecting both resilience and fragility. For low-income countries, flour is a cornerstone of food security, while in high-income markets it is increasingly tied to innovation and value-added products. Ultimately, the strength of the flour sector lies in its ability to link agriculture with industry, trade with food security — making the global food system more resilient and sustainable for the future.

GLOBAL FLOUR TRADE

Since 2005, the global flour trade has seen its ups and downs in both volume and value. The market reached a record high in 2017, when exports climbed to around 15 million tons. But things changed in the following years: the pandemic brought supply challenges, and the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022 pushed wheat prices sharply higher. On top of that, many exporting countries turned to protective trade policies to shield themselves from possible supply shocks — all of which directly shaped the flour trade.

What these developments show is clear: in terms of volume, global flour exports have stayed fairly steady, but in terms of value, they swing heavily with wheat prices. Looking ahead, the global flour trade is expected to settle at about 14 million tons, with only modest but steady growth likely in the years to come.

When looking at income groups, one striking point is that flour imports have been steadily rising in low-income countries. This clearly shows that flour is a cornerstone of food security in these regions. In contrast, in high-income countries, import volumes remain limited, but unit prices are noticeably higher. As a result, flour plays different roles depending on income level: in low-income countries it is volume-driven and central to food security, while in high-income countries it is positioned more as a value-added product linked to variety and specialization.

GERMANY: MODERNIZATION AND CONSISTENCY

Germany stands out as a model of a stable and highly technological flour industry. Each year, the country processes 8–9 million tons of grain, with about 95% sourced domestically — meaning virtually no import dependency. Per capita flour consumption is around 85 kg and is expected to remain steady through 2030.

What truly distinguishes Germany is modernization. The number of mills fell from 317 in 2007 to just 160 in 2023, yet overall production actually increased. This reflects a clear shift toward fewer but larger, more efficient facilities, driven by economies of scale. In addition, Germany’s commitment to cutting carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 under the EU Green Deal puts it at the forefront of low-carbon flour production.

On the export side, Germany ranks in the mid-to-upper range with 1.2–2 million tons annually. Since domestic consumption has already reached a saturation point, future growth will largely depend on exports and innovation. Value-added products such as gluten-free, high-protein, and whole-grain flour are giving Germany a strong opportunity to claim leadership within Europe.

PAKISTAN: FRAGILITY AND THE CYCLE OF CRISIS

The data on Pakistan is striking. Annual wheat production of 25–27 million tons falls short of meeting domestic demand, which means the country is expected to import 2–4 million tons of wheat per year between 2025 and 2028. Recurrent currency crises only deepen this production gap.

In the flour sector, overcapacity and low utilization are defining features. Despite having more than 1,400 flour mills, capacity utilization remains stuck at just 38%. On top of that, around 60% of flour is produced in small-scale chakki mills.

When it comes to exports, Pakistan’s position is highly fragile. Although flour exports occasionally gained momentum between 2008 and 2013, they have nearly collapsed since the 2020s. Shifting policies — allowing exports one year and facing emergency import needs the next — together with chronic foreign exchange shortages, have fueled this instability. As a result, Pakistan’s flour industry is caught in a recurring cycle of crisis: shortage – price spikes – social unrest.

TURKEY: LEADERSHIP AND EXPORT POWER

Since 2014, Turkey has held its place as the world’s largest flour exporter. In the 2023–2024 period, the country exported between 3.0 and 3.5 million tons of flour, meeting nearly 30% of global trade on its own.

Production capacity is widely spread across the country. According to TOBB data, there are 350 operating flour mills with a combined installed capacity of over 20 million tons. Yet these figures do not fully reflect the reality of the sector. In fact, Turkey has close to 500 mills and an actual installed capacity of around 30 million tons. Many mills, however, do not update their capacity reports, which is why they remain invisible in official statistics. As a result, the sector appears smaller on paper than it is in practice, even though real capacity is much higher. Despite this, overall capacity utilization hovers around 35–40%.

From an export market perspective, Turkey’s main customers include countries such as Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen. During the 2023–2024 period, Iraq’s share declined while the importance of African markets increased. This growing geographical diversity allows Turkey both to spread its risks and to strengthen its position as a regional leader.

Turkey’s key strength lies in its ability to serve different income groups thanks to its logistical advantages and competitive pricing. Export patterns show that the country successfully plays a dual role: acting as a vital food supplier for low-income nations while also positioning itself as a cost-effective alternative for middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION: POWERFUL AGRICULTURE, RESILIENT INDUSTRY, FOOD SECTOR STRENGTH

The flour industry shows how powerful agriculture can shape both industry and food security. When farming is predictable and reliable, it creates a strong base for a thriving flour sector, which in turn supports a vibrant bakery industry — together forming the backbone of the food system.

In recent years, the traditional flour market has kept growing, while functional and value-added flour varieties are rising quickly. The stability of the core market provides confidence and space for innovation, helping secure the industry’s future dynamism.

On a global scale, flour exports are more than just trade — they act as a safety net for food security. Whenever wheat supplies are disrupted, flour exports help keep supply chains alive and bring stability, especially in vulnerable countries.

In the end, a strong flour sector makes the global food chain more resilient and less fragile in the face of shocks. From agriculture to industry, from exports to food security, this chain is essential for building a more reliable and sustainable food system for the future.