Another factor that comes with climate change and will negatively affect agriculture is the diseases and pests that may shift to the north with increasing temperatures. One cannot even imagine its possible effects. In the face of the increasingly negative effects of these changes, the following question comes to mind: Does Climate Change Create Food Crises?

Prof. Nazimi Açıkgöz

Considering the course of deviations in temperatures from annual averages in Germany between 1881 and 2021, the significance and severity of the matter can be better understood (Graph).

All the world organizations have already grasped the importance of this climate change, and they have rolled up their sleeves to take urgent measures regarding the adverse effects of the event on food and agriculture. FAO, the European Commission (EC), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the World Food Program (WFP) have recently signed a framework cooperation agreement to meet the food requirement. The aim is to develop effective, coordinated, and sustainable new strategies for food safety and security.

There are many other compelling reasons on top of climate change. First of all, the expectation is that the population will reach 9.5 billion in 2050. Based on the cultivation area data, while a production area of 4.3 hectares per capita decreased in 1960, it is a known fact that this figure decreased to 3 in 1980 and to 1.8 hectares in 2020. Let’s try to estimate the number of people fed by one hectare of agricultural land: In 1960, one hectare fed 0.7 people, in 1980 1.5 people, in 2000 2.7 people. One hectare needs to feed 4.2 people in 2020. From this point of view, the inevitability of harvesting more products per unit area emerges in the forthcoming years.

Another factor that comes with climate change and will negatively affect agriculture is the diseases and pests that may shift to the north with increasing temperatures. One cannot even imagine its possible effects. In the face of the increasingly negative effects of these changes, the following question comes to mind: Does Climate Change Create Food Crises?

At this stage, let’s first try to answer the question of whether we can make agricultural production sustainable.

- Some countries are changing their production models. Saudi Arabia ended wheat farming in 2016 for water-saving purposes. Could this set an example?

- Is there any possibility of creating new areas for some productions, as the French vineyard growers shifted their vineyard facilities to the UK?

- How effective can production increases be through new practices such as planting on stubble, second crop (even four crops per year can be obtained in paddy in China), double-crop, soilless farming, vertical farming, urban roof or warehouse-basement farming, and permaculture?

- Plant and animal breeding are reliable resources to ensure tomorrow’s foodstuffs in the face of climate change. The fact that drought-resistant corn varieties have already been registered and delivered to the producer mainly by using genetic engineering and biotechnology, proves this. So, can these and similar applications be sufficient?

- The hybrid technique, which provides an increase in yield in cross-pollinated products, was applied to a self-pollinated rice paddy in China and this country got rid of being a rice importer by planting hybrid paddy on 56% of the paddy cultivation areas. So, is it possible to increase wheat production by developing hybrid wheat varieties?

- In methods such as “CRISPR-Cas9”, there is no external gene transfer unlike GMOs, and new genotypes are created by silencing the targeted gene, increasing or decreasing its effect, and micro-mutating it with the help of temporary DNA-cutting enzymes. With these new breeding techniques, plants and animals have been improved in many countries. Can’t such biotechnological innovations be brought into the bioeconomy of other countries, including the EU and Türkiye?

- Can’t the promotion of the production and consumption of plant-based meat, milk, cheese, etc., which is prominent in land and water use, frequently suggested in climate change, will disburden animal husbandry and fisheries, be expanded?

- By reducing crop losses by half, agricultural production may increase by 20% in the 2050s.

Even if all these questions are answered in the affirmative, it is a fact that the climate crisis, of which level cannot be fixed, will be the biggest threat to food security.