Namık Kemal Parlak

The Global Grain Geneva 2024, hosted by Fastmarkets, concluded successfully from November 12 to 14, attracting over 800 delegates from across the world. Recognized as one of the most prestigious gatherings for agri-commodity traders, industry leaders, and experts, this year’s conference provided crucial insights into the dyiknamics of global agricultural markets. The event once again solidifyed its reputation as one of the premier gatherings in the agri-commodity sector.

This year’s conference was particularly noteworthy for its expanded scope. In addition to its traditional focus on grain trade, the event delved into the growing sectors of pulses, oilseeds, and vegetable oils, reflecting their increasing significance in the global market. Attendees were treated to cutting-edge discussions on the critical issues shaping the agricultural landscape, such as the role of climate change, the integration of digital technologies, and the ongoing challenges in freight and logistics. The regional market spotlights on areas like the Black Sea, South America, and Northern Europe further enriched the content, offering attendees a comprehensive, global view of agri-commodity trends. The networking opportunities were another standout feature, with new interactive spaces like the Live Lounge and Topic Meeting Points allowing delegates to exchange ideas, discuss strategies, and build relationships in a dynamic and engaging environment.

KEY NON-FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS FOR 2025

In his presentation at the Global Grain Geneva, Dave Whitcomb, Head of Research at Peak Trading Research, discussed key non-fundamental price drivers that play a pivotal role in the agriculture futures markets. These forces, including the macro-economic environment, market structure, momentum, and seasonality, were highlighted as crucial factors that influence price dynamics beyond traditional fundamentals. Whitcomb emphasized the importance of macroeconomic factors in shaping the agriculture markets. Compared to energy and metals markets, agriculture futures are relatively smaller, making them highly sensitive to large-scale economic movements. Key drivers include:

• Federal Reserve Policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, especially interest rate decisions, directly impact global risk sentiment and the strength of the U.S. dollar. A strong dollar can suppress agriculture futures by making U.S. exports less competitive.
• Crude Oil Trends: Crude oil is a significant driver in the commodity markets, and its price movements affect all agriculture markets. Geopolitical tensions can cause crude rallies, which may boost agriculture futures, while economic downturns or price declines exert downward pressure.
• Brazilian Real and Chinese Yuan: As major players in the global agricultural market, fluctuations in the Brazilian real and Chinese yuan influence commodities such as soybeans, sugar, and coffee, directly affecting trade competitiveness and import capacities.

Whitcomb also noted that hedge funds dominate agricultural markets, impacting price movements through their strategies. These funds base their decisions on macro trends, quantitative models, and seasonal patterns. Understanding hedge fund positions and expectations provides valuable insight into market behavior.

Momentum-driven trading strategies continue to shape agricultural markets, with record levels of investment following trends. Although 2024 has presented challenges for momentum strategies, they remain a critical influence on price direction. Monitoring shifts in momentum indicators helps traders predict future market movements.

Agriculture markets are known for their predictable seasonal trends. In 2024, these trends have provided consistent opportunities for traders. Seasonality is expected to remain strong, with opportunities to capitalize on these patterns as the year closes. Risk sentiment, reflected in broad market indicators such as the S&P 500, can provide insights into the demand for premium agricultural products, signaling shifts in consumer preferences. Additionally, inflation expectations are critical for agricultural futures, which often serve as a hedge against inflation, attracting institutional capital during inflationary periods.

Looking ahead to 2025, Whitcomb advised traders to pay close attention to the macroeconomic environment, stressing the need for a tailored macro dashboard. By monitoring economic indicators and indices, traders can better anticipate price movements. 

INSIGHTS INTO THE 2024/25 GRAIN SEASON

Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council, shared key insights at the event, shedding light on the current state of global grain markets and offering projections for the 2024/25 season. Karavaytsev highlighted a steady decline in global grain stocks, both overall and in major exporting countries, noting a modest 4% decrease over the past decade. He also addressed the ongoing fluctuations in grain prices, which have been decreasing since their peak in May 2022, following the onset of the Black Sea conflict. Recently, prices have dropped to their lowest levels in four years, marking a 40% decrease from the 2022 highs. In the past year, competition from Black Sea region exports, especially wheat, contributed to the price decline. However, adverse weather conditions in key growing regions such as Russia, the U.S., and Europe have recently pushed prices higher, as concerns over spring planting and potential crop damage arise. The strong demand for maize has also supported price increases.

Looking ahead to the 2024/25 season, Karavaytsev expects a reduction in wheat production in the Black Sea region and the European Union, coupled with lower outputs in the U.S. and Canada, as well as crop losses in China and India. However, Kazakhstan is expected to see a significant increase in production, potentially offsetting some of these declines. Although global wheat consumption is anticipated to slightly contract this year, food demand for wheat will continue its gradual growth.

In terms of trade, the Black Sea region is facing a significant contraction in exports, with a potential drop of 25 million tons, primarily from Russia and Ukraine. However, strong export performances are expected from countries like Canada, the U.S., Australia, and Argentina, which will help offset the shortfall.

Looking at key import markets, Karavaytsev pointed to a substantial reduction in wheat imports by China, as well as lower local production and unfavorable weather conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Karavaytsev also touched upon Brazil’s expanding role in maize-based ethanol production, with a important increase in maize usage for ethanol production this season, as more plants come online. This shift is having notable impacts on the global maize market.

As for the broader outlook, several uncertainties remain, particularly concerning Black Sea shipments, crop conditions, and geopolitical developments. The pace of exports from the Black Sea is expected to slow in the second half of the year, with restrictions and geopolitical factors potentially influencing trade flows. Additionally, weather conditions in key growing regions, as well as fluctuating demand from China, will be crucial factors in shaping global grain trade dynamics. 

WHAT’S DRIVING AGRICULTURAL MARKETS?

During the panel ‘What’s Driving Agri Markets in 2024-25?’, experts John Baffes, Senior Economist at the World Bank, and Cedric Pene, Counsellor at the WTO’s Agriculture and Commodities Division, provided their perspectives on the key factors shaping agricultural markets. The panel discussed a range of issues impacting global agricultural trade and markets. One of the primary topics was the potential impact of protectionist policies under new Trump administration in the U.S. These policies might introduce short-term volatility. Trump has raised the idea of a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese products to boost US manufacturing, which if enacted could again lead to retaliation on agricultural goods.

The discussion also highlighted the ongoing effects of the strengthening U.S. dollar, which has a strong inverse correlation with commodity prices. A stronger dollar could put downward pressure on commodity prices, which would have an impact on global trade and agricultural markets. Another significant topic was inflation, which remains a concern in many countries. While inflation has eased in many regions, it continues to remain above central bank targets. This persistent inflation has been linked to challenges in food security, with rising food prices in developing countries posing difficulties for consumers. Trade restrictions, especially those impacting the wheat markets, were also discussed. These restrictions often trigger a chain reaction, with one country’s policy influencing others, which can create uncertainty and disrupt global supply chains. 

Fertilizer availability, particularly in relation to energy prices, was another key issue raised. Experts pointed out the critical role that natural gas plays in fertilizer production and the volatility in energy markets, which has direct consequences for agricultural input costs. While some relief has come from increased fertilizer exports from major players like the U.S. and China, the overall volatility in energy prices remains a key concern for agricultural productivity.

The panel also discussed the growing influence of climate change on agricultural markets. More frequent and severe adverse weather events, such as droughts and floods, have already started to affect crop yields in several regions. Climate change is also affecting logistics, with the Panama Canal, for example, experiencing water level constraints that have impacted global trade flows. Despite these challenges, the agricultural sector has shown resilience, with global diversification helping to mitigate some of the negative impacts. However, crops that require long-term investment and are geographically confined, such as coffee and cocoa, remain particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

BLACK SEA WHEAT PRODUCTION AND EXPORT TRENDS

Masha Belikova, Editor at Fastmarkets, delivered a comprehensive update on the Black Sea wheat market at the conference, providing insights on the key developments in Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Belikova reported that Ukraine’s wheat production exceeded expectations, reaching 22.3 million tons, in line with last year’s crop. Of this, 30-40% is milling grade. The country’s export forecast stands at 16.2 million tons, which aligns with the memorandum of understanding signed between the government and traders, though this could be revised based on the export pace. As of now, Ukraine has already exported 8.3 million tons, around half of the projected total for the 2024/25 marketing year.

Winter wheat planting in Ukraine has reached 98% of the planned area, covering 4.38 million hectares, just shy of the 4.69 million hectares planted last year. The humanitarian corridor, which began operating in October 2023, has enabled shipments from Black Sea ports to reach their highest levels since pre-war times. However, since April 2024, the flow of agricultural products has slowed due to lower carry-over stocks and a reduction in production. This has led to a drop in transshipment costs, from $20-25 per ton last year to $14-17 per ton, with expectations that costs may decrease further. While there has been a reduction in the difference in freight costs between Ukrainian ports and Romania’s Constanta, the situation remains variable depending on the shipowner and the company paying for the service. Belikova also noted that Ukraine’s minimum export prices for wheat are unlikely to have a major impact on trade, as they are currently set around $50 per ton below the market levels on a FOB basis.

In Russia, wheat production is expected to decline by nearly 10 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, with official estimates standing at 83 million tons. However, this figure likely includes 3.3 million tons from Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia. Despite the drop in crop size, Russia’s export pace remains robust, with 20 million tons exported by the end of October. The country’s total export potential for the year stands between 41.5 and 48 million tons, with the USDA’s higher estimate at the top end.

Winter wheat planting in Russia has already been completed on 17.5 million hectares, down from 18.1 million hectares last year. Belikova forecasted the 2025/26 crop size to be between 79 and 85 million tons, with the lower end representing a more pessimistic scenario due to challenging weather conditions.

Regarding exports, Russia’s export pace is so high that the government is expected to halve its grain export quota for the second half of the marketing year (February 15–June 30), down from 29 million tons last year to a range of 9-12 million tons. Although the Russian government has implemented measures to regulate the market, including minimum export prices and restrictions on exports to “unfriendly” countries, these have not been consistently followed by the market.

Both Romania and Bulgaria saw a good wheat harvest this year, with Romania producing 10.05 million tons, in line with last year’s figures, and Bulgaria reaching 6.6 million tons, a slight increase of 100,000 tons compared to the previous year. The quality of wheat in both countries is generally high, with most of the crop suitable for milling, and a limited supply of feed wheat. This presents an opportunity for Ukrainian sellers to offer feed wheat through Romania’s Constanta ports. Although the wheat from Romania and Bulgaria is somewhat more expensive than supplies from Ukraine or Russia, it is competitive in large tenders, such as those from GASC and Algeria, especially given the policies in Russia and better freight rates offered from the region.

TARIFF UNCERTAINTY UNDER TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

One of the most engaging sessions at the Global Grain Geneva was the grain exporters’ panel. Alejandra Castillo, President & CEO of the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA), shared valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing U.S. grain exports in the coming year. Castillo highlighted the latest USDA projections, which show a decline in U.S. corn and soybean production. Corn supplies remain tight, with production levels falling below last year’s 330 million tons. Similarly, soybean output has been revised downward to just under 100 million tons, raising concerns about the export potential of both crops.

Brazil’s expanding grain production and improvements in its infrastructure are intensifying competition in global markets, especially as logistical challenges in the U.S., such as low water levels on the Mississippi River, disrupt supply chains and increase freight costs. This has driven up U.S. grain basis values and complicated the movement of commodities to export terminals.

On the demand side, while there have been early purchases from Mexico and some sales to China, overall international demand for U.S. grains is expected to soften in the 2024/25 marketing year. Robust crop outputs from Brazil and Argentina are increasing their competitiveness. Domestically, rising demand for biofuels in the U.S. offers a partial silver lining, helping to stabilize parts of the supply chain. However, this domestic boost is insufficient to offset the subdued export outlook for both corn and soybeans. 

The U.S. grain trade is also grappling with broader geopolitical and regulatory pressures. For instance, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has introduced stricter requirements for agricultural imports into the EU, the U.S.’s third-largest grain export market. Climate-related logistical disruptions are another critical issue. Low water levels on the Mississippi River have delayed barge traffic and hindered the timely movement of grains to Gulf Coast facilities. “Non-science-based criticisms of U.S. crops, particularly regarding biotechnology, are resurfacing, adding complexity to market access in key destinations,” Castillo also noted.

Finally, Castillo addressed the potential impact of a second Trump administration on U.S. agricultural policy, noting that the prospect of tariffs—with reports of tariffs as high as 20% on EU goods and 60% on Chinese goods—could have significant consequences for U.S. grain competitiveness in the form of retaliatory tariffs. However, she emphasized that much remains uncertain at this stage, as key appointments to the USDA and USTR have not yet been announced.

UKRAINE’S RESILIENCE AMIDST WAR

Nikolay Gorbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), highlighted Ukraine’s resilience in grain and oilseed exports despite the ongoing war. He emphasized that Ukraine retains the technical capacity to export up to 100 million tons annually, although the war and the occupation of 20% of its territory have reduced the planting area by approximately 6 million hectares. 

Logistics have shifted significantly, with alternative routes complementing the critical Black Sea corridor. Gorbachov noted successful utilization of European corridors and cooperation with neighboring countries, including rail transport. While rail is less efficient for large volumes, it remains a vital option to maintain exports. Leveraging both traditional and alternative logistics, Ukraine aims to meet export demands and sustain its vital role in global grain markets.

Gorbachov stressed that agriculture is critical to Ukraine’s economy, constituting 20% of GDP and generating 60% of foreign currency income. He cautioned that any collapse of the agricultural system would have catastrophic consequences for the broader economy.

In the European market, Ukrainian corn, which previously held a 60% share, now faces intensified competition from Brazil and the U.S., reducing its market share to 40-45%. Despite this shift, Gorbachov remains confident that Ukraine will reclaim a larger share. Gorbachov also noted a decline in Ukraine’s population due to the war, with only 25–30 million people remaining in the country, down from 42 million before the conflict. Nevertheless, he reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to being a stable and reliable grain supplier.

China remains a key market for Ukrainian grain, particularly non-GMO corn, which aligns with Chinese preferences. However, competition is growing, especially from Argentina, which has secured agreements to export corn and grains to China. In the global wheat market, Ukraine faces additional competition from Argentina and the impact of geopolitical developments, such as US trade policy, which could create new challenges and opportunities.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR BRAZIL’S GRAIN EXPORT BOOM?

Frederico Humberg, CEO of AgriBrasil, provided an in-depth overview of Brazil’s grain export dynamics. Brazil’s grain exports have historically faced significant delays due to port congestion, particularly at Paranaguá, where waiting times could extend up to 70 days. However, private investments in port infrastructure have drastically improved efficiency, reducing average waiting times to as little as five days for private terminals. 

Despite these gains, Humberg highlighted ongoing constraints in Brazil’s logistics infrastructure. Rail networks remain underdeveloped and lack the capacity to manage increasing export volumes, forcing exporters to depend heavily on road transport, which is less efficient and costlier. Climate factors further compound these challenges, with low water levels in northern Brazil affecting river logistics. While the rainy season may alleviate some issues later in the year, disruptions to river transport, which accounts for 20% of grain exports, remain a concern.

Brazil’s grain exports are set to rise from 95 million tons last year to a record 108 million tons in 2024. This growth underscores the country’s critical role in global markets but also puts additional strain on infrastructure during peak export periods. Soybean exports are concentrated from January to June, while corn shipments dominate from July onward.

The rapid expansion of biofuel production is reshaping Brazil’s grain industry. Around 22% of the country’s corn production is now converted into ethanol, and approximately 40 million tons of soybeans are processed domestically for biodiesel. This trend not only supports local processing industries but also reduces export pressures.

Global market diversification has been key to Brazil’s growing competitiveness. Humberg pointed to increased trade with China, expanded market penetration in Southeast Asia, and India’s rising demand for ethanol and grains as pivotal developments. 

Global factors are also shaping Brazil’s trade strategy. The record low water levels of the Mississippi River in the U.S. are hindering American grain exports, presenting an opportunity for Brazil to capture additional market share. Humberg also remarked on the potential implications of U.S. political shifts, including the possibility of renewed trade tensions under Trump administration, which could again favor Brazilian exports.

Humberg concluded by emphasizing the importance of careful planning to overcome logistical challenges and meet rising global demand. Brazil’s export capacity of up to 20 million tons per month will be vital to maintaining its position in global markets. While exports may slightly dip in the second half of 2024, with estimates around 40 million tons, Humberg remains optimistic about Brazil’s long-term prospects. He projected that Brazil’s grain exports could exceed 200 million tons in the coming years, cementing its status as a global agricultural powerhouse.

CANADA’S STRATEGIC ROLE IN GLOBAL GRAIN MARKETS

Erin Gowriluk, President of the Canada Grains Council, delivered key updates on Canada’s role in the global grain market at the conference, focusing on durum wheat, barley and wheat production, as well as broader agricultural challenges. She emphasized that Canada is the largest exporter of durum wheat, accounting for over half of the global trade in this commodity. Following a period of critically low global durum stocks in the 2023-2024 crop year, Canada’s durum wheat exports are expected to reach 4.8 million tons this year due to increased production.

Regarding barley, Gowriluk explained that Canadian farmers reduced barley acreage in 2024, leading to a 13% decline in planted barley. With yields slightly below the five-year average, the country produced 7.6 million tons of barley. Supplies are expected to remain tight, particularly for exports to China, with only 25-30% of the crop qualifying as malting quality. On wheat, Canada is forecasted to export 25.4 million tons of wheat in 2024-2025, maintaining its position as the third-largest wheat exporter globally and the top exporter of high-quality, high-protein wheat.

Gowriluk also addressed broader global agricultural challenges, including stagnant global grain stocks, the impact of climate change, water scarcity, and geopolitical disruptions. Despite these challenges, Canada remains a reliable supplier of high-quality grains and pulses, and Gowriluk urged global stakeholders to view Canada as a strategic partner in securing sustainable supply chains. She stressed the importance of international collaboration to address shared challenges and ensure global food security.

WEST AFRICA’S RISING ROLE IN THE BALTIC GRAIN TRADE

One of the most captivating panels at the Global Grain Geneva was the ‘North Europe and Baltics Grain Flows’ panel, which offered deep insights into the dynamics of grain trade in this critical region. Moderated by Natalja Skuratovic, Senior Account Executive at EarthDaily Agro, the session brought together industry experts to explore the challenges and opportunities shaping grain flows in Northern Europe and the Baltics. Andrea Berutti, Director of Ahlmann-Zerssen, pointed out the growing importance of North and West Africa as emerging markets, highlighting the stability of intra-European shipping routes. Remarkably, seven out of the top 10 intra-European routes are in the Baltic region, suggesting its continued significance in European grain trade. Despite challenges from geopolitical disruptions, Berutti believes the Baltic region will remain a strong and profitable market for grain trade in the future.

Norbert Sztolc, Commercial Head of Grains & Oilseeds at Polish Agro, highlighted the significant impact of recent political changes on trade routes and supply chains. A few years ago, around 50% of Polish wheat was exported to Saudi Arabia, but with the influx of Russian wheat into the Saudi market, Poland has had to find new export destinations. Currently, West Africa is the primary market for Polish milling wheat, while Polish corn largely remains within the European Union. Poland has seen significant growth in its corn production and its importance within the domestic market, thanks to rising ethanol production and the development of animal feed facilities. Regarding export destinations, Sztolc noted that Polish corn is increasingly being exported for animal feed to markets like the UK, Ireland, and Mediterranean countries. New markets, such as Hungary and the Balkans, have also emerged, though challenges like mycotoxin issues may limit their long-term potential.

Sztolc forecasted a surge in Polish grain exports as the season progresses, especially wheat, with a late peak expected in the second quarter of next year. Poland will likely export around 4 million tons of wheat, but this number depends on the rate at which farmers sell.

The role of Poland in Ukrainian grain transit has also evolved, with the Polish government’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports reducing the flow of Ukrainian goods through Polish ports. This shift has prompted some Polish ports to seek alternative customers, as direct sales from Odessa are often more profitable for Ukrainian exporters.

During the panel, Karolis Šimas, President of the Lithuanian Grain Processors and Traders Association, provided insights into export trends of Lithuanian wheat. Lithuania has seen a diversification in its markets. While the Middle East has traditionally been a key market, countries in West Africa, especially Nigeria, have become significant buyers due to their preference for single-origin wheat. Lithuania’s wheat production remains stable, with expected export volumes around 4 million tons, supporting its strong position in the Baltic market. Karolis also highlighted that, in response to the impact of climate change, Lithuania has introduced newer wheat varieties capable of withstanding colder temperatures. These varieties, which can survive temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius, have shown resilience, helping the country adjust to unpredictable weather patterns.

BRAZIL’S GLOBAL CORN TRADE LANDSCAPE

Luiz Carlos dos Santos Jr., Associate Director at SA Commodities, shared his insights during the panel discussion on global corn markets at the event, moderated by Christina Serebryakova, CEO of ASAP Agri. Regarding the size of Brazil’s corn crop for the upcoming season, Santos emphasized his confidence that the yield could surpass the USDA’s estimate of 127 million metric tons (mmt). The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) has forecasted a crop size of around 120 mmt, representing a 3.6% increase over the previous season. Santos further broke down the expected production by region: the North is expected to produce 6.1 mmt, the Northeast 10.1 mmt, the Mid-West 71.1 mmt, the Southeast 10.4 mmt, and the South 21.8 mmt.

In terms of Brazil’s shipping capacity, Santos highlighted significant investments underway to increase bulk grain export capacity. Currently, the Northern Arc ports have an installed capacity of 52 million tons, with an additional 48 million tons of capacity planned, bringing the total expected shipping capacity to around 100 million tons in the next five years. Notably, 43.3% of Brazil’s grain exports left through the Amazon Arc ports in the first quarter of the year.

Santos also provided an overview of global corn export shares for Brazil this year. China is the largest importer, accounting for 16.3% of Brazil’s corn exports, followed by Egypt at 11%, and Algeria and Vietnam at 7%. Other key buyers include Spain, Morocco, and Iran, each importing around 5%.

SAUDI ARABIA’S GRAIN MARKET DYNAMICS

Following Luiz Carlos dos Santos Jr.’s detailed analysis, Anis Alam, Chief of Grain Procurement at ARASCO, took the stage to provide a perspective on Saudi Arabia’s grain market dynamics. Alam shed light on Saudi Arabia’s reliance on imports to meet domestic grain demand, given its limited production of 1.2 million tons. With a population of 32 million, the kingdom requires significant imports, including approximately 5 million tons of corn annually, half of which is used for animal feed. Alam emphasized that water scarcity has driven a shift from barley to compound feed, intensifying the demand for corn, which is expected to grow by 5-10% in the coming years. Saudi Arabia’s ambitions for food self-sufficiency by 2025, targeting 75% domestic food production, are shaping the grain market, particularly through the growth of its poultry, dairy, and livestock farming industries. In this competitive market, Brazil and Argentina have emerged as primary suppliers. Alam highlighted Saudi Arabia’s trade strategy, where buyers prioritize cost-effective and logistically feasible options, underpinned by government policies that safeguard exporters and foster strong global trade partnerships.

GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS

At the Global Grain Geneva conference, the Global Food Security Panel brought together leading experts to discuss the critical issues surrounding food security in light of geopolitical tensions, commodity markets, and the global economic landscape. The panel was moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist at the FAO – AMIS, and featured prominent speakers, including Friederike Greb, Economist at the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP); Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, Senior Economist at the World Bank; Joe Glauber, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); and Jonathan Hepburn, Counsellor at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The discussion began by focusing on the diversification of food suppliers amidst growing geopolitical tensions. The conversation then shifted to the impact of rising food prices, with experts highlighting how price increases affect both farmers and consumers. Sharp price spikes, the panel noted, can harm farmers as they don’t have enough time to adjust their production. On the other hand, gradual price increases allow farmers the necessary time to adapt and increase output.

The panel also addressed the link between food insecurity and reliance on food imports. Experts emphasized that countries with balance of payments issues, particularly net food importers, are more vulnerable to food insecurity. These nations may struggle to afford food imports if commodity prices continue to rise.

Another key topic explored was food assistance strategies, with a focus on the shift from in-kind aid to cash transfers. The WFP has significantly expanded its use of cash transfers in recent years, allowing recipients to make decisions based on their broader needs, not just food. This approach has been effective, stimulating local economies and fostering financial inclusion. However, experts pointed out that the effectiveness of cash transfers depends on the market functionality and the financial ecosystem of the recipient countries.

The panel concluded by emphasizing the importance of domestic food stocks in maintaining food security during crises. Experts stressed that having sufficient reserves is crucial to prevent panic buying and price spikes during disruptions. While supply chain diversification is important, building robust domestic food stocks remains vital for ensuring resilience during times of crisis.