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FAO has lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 to 2.98 billion tonnes, with worsening maize prospects driving most of the latest downgrade. Although the world is heading for its second-largest cereal harvest on record, restricted Black Sea export routes are expected to leave more wheat in Russia and Ukraine while encouraging importers to diversify their origins.

The FAO Food Price Index increased by 1.9% in August, with prices rising across all major commodity groups. Wheat quotations climbed 2.6% during the month and stood 15% above last year’s level as Black Sea logistics disruptions, adverse European weather and uncertainty over key trade flows added fresh risk premiums to grain markets.

The Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Máximo Torero, warned that the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor is triggering one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, with significant implications for food security, agricultural production, and global markets.

Global food benchmark eased month-on-month as dairy, meat and vegetable oils declined, but the index averaged 4.3% higher in 2025 than in 2024.

FAO’s new Food Outlook warns that the global food import bill will hit a fresh record in 2025, as lower cereal and sugar prices are more than offset by surging costs for coffee, cocoa, oils and other higher-value products.