The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has released the First Estimate of Crop Production for 2025, offering important insights for the agricultural sector. While overall production is projected to decrease across field crops, vegetables, and fruits, the most notable declines are expected in grain and wheat output.
According to data prepared in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, total crop production in 2025 is forecast to decline compared to the previous year. The first estimate indicates a projected decrease of 5.3% in cereals and other crops (excluding fodder crops), 1.7% in vegetables, and 24.4% in fruits, beverage, and spice crops.
Crop production, 2024, 2025
Decline in Grain Production, Corn as a Notable Exception
Wheat, one of Turkey’s staple food products, is expected to experience a 5.8% decrease in production, falling to 19.6 million tons in 2025. This marks one of the most striking drops in wheat output in recent years.
Similar declines are anticipated across other major cereals:
- Barley production: Down 8.0% to 7.5 million tons
- Rye production: Down 5.5% to 243 thousand tons
- Oat production: Down 23.1% to 300 thousand tons
However, corn is projected to defy the general downward trend. Corn production is expected to rise by 4.9%, reaching 8.5 million tons in 2025. This increase underscores the strategic importance of corn as both animal feed and an industrial input.
Mixed Outlook for Pulses and Oilseeds
Dry pulses present a relatively stable outlook in the 2025 forecasts:
- Chickpeas: 605 thousand tons
- Dry beans: 283 thousand tons
- Red lentils: 340 thousand tons
In contrast, oilseeds show a more complex picture. Soybean production is expected to fall by 11.1% to 160 thousand tons, while sunflower production is forecast to rise by 4.8%, reaching 2.3 million tons.
Notable Declines in Potato and Sugar Beet Production
Potato production, a cornerstone of Turkey’s food supply, is projected to decrease by 13.0% in 2025, dropping to 6 million tons. This decline could impact both the food processing industry and export prospects.
Similarly, sugar beet production is estimated to decline by 6.5%, remaining at around 21.5 million tons.
In the vegetable category, a general decrease of 1.7% is expected in 2025, though individual crops show varying trends. While modest production increases are anticipated in crops such as watermelon, dry onion, and eggplant, declines are forecast for tomatoes, red peppers, and fresh beans.
The most significant contraction, however, is expected in fruit production. Total fruit output is forecast to drop by 24.4% compared to the previous year, reaching 21.4 million tons.
Hard-shelled fruits are also expected to see sharp declines. Hazelnut production is projected to fall by 27.5%, walnut by 27.7%, and pistachio by a striking 54.6%.
This first estimate suggests that the agricultural sector may face considerable challenges in 2025. Key drivers behind the anticipated production decline include drought, rising input costs, decreased producer motivation, and uncertainties stemming from climate change.
The drop in production of staple crops, particularly grains and wheat, has direct implications for food supply and price stability. How Turkey manages this decline—especially in light of its goal to reduce wheat import dependency—will be a critical issue for public policy in the months ahead.