The Turkish flour industry is currently going through a challenging period due to a border crossing crisis with Iraq, the impact of import restrictions that ended on March 19, and Russia’s rapidly growing competition. TUSAF President Mesut Çakmak stated, “Exports from the Southeast have nearly come to a halt. Given the limited domestic demand, the continuity of exports is of vital importance. For Turkey to maintain its long-standing global leadership, exports are indispensable.”

Mesut Çakmak, President of the Turkish Flour Industrialists' Federation (TUSAF), made critical statements about the sector during the 2025 Pre-Harvest Grain Congress held in Mardin. The disruption in flour exports to Iraq and the growing competition from Russia are threatening Turkey’s leading position.

Çakmak emphasized that Turkey’s decade-long leadership in global flour exports is facing a serious test, and that the industry is grappling with two major threats: the significant disruption in exports to Iraq and Russia’s aggressive rise.

Bottleneck at the Iraqi Border: Exports to the South Have Halted

Çakmak highlighted that the recent challenges in the Iraqi market, which is particularly crucial for the Southeastern Anatolia region, have alarmed flour producers. He noted that due to political tensions between the Baghdad government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Turkish flour can no longer be transported from Zakho to southern Iraq.

“We are currently only able to export to the Zakho region. Shipments to the southern regions are not possible because the border gate—particularly the Habur crossing—is effectively closed. We’ve informed our Minister of Trade, and he has stepped in. However, if this crisis isn’t resolved swiftly, our exports will be seriously disrupted,” he said.

Recalling that 1 million tons of flour were exported to Iraq in 2023 and 1.2 million tons in 2022, Çakmak predicted that if the current crisis continues, export volume could drop to as low as 750,000 tons this year.

Russia’s Rise: A Threat to Market Leadership

Another major issue facing the sector is Russia’s growing flour exports. Çakmak noted that Turkey has been the world leader in flour exports for the past 10 years but that Russia exported more than 1 million tons of flour in 2024, directly threatening Turkey’s markets.

“Russia is now a serious player not just in wheat, but also in flour exports. With state-backed strategies, it is entering new markets, and we are at risk of losing some of our traditional ones,” he said.

Çakmak pointed out that Russia has expanded its grain cultivation area to 30 million hectares, significantly increasing productivity. Despite reducing its wheat export quota for the 2024–25 season, Russia has maintained its dominance in the market, strengthening its presence particularly in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa—regions traditionally served by Turkey.

Import Restrictions and Shrinking Capacity: A Difficult Period for the Industry

Another key point in Çakmak’s speech was the impact of wheat import restrictions imposed in 2024, which created a contraction in the industry. The import ban, which began in June, lasted until October 15. Afterward, limited import allowances of 15%, and later 25% by year-end, were implemented. During this period, exports fell by 40%.

In 2023, Turkey imported 12 million tons of wheat under the Inward Processing Regime (IPR), generating $1.5 billion in revenue from 3.6 million tons of flour exports. However, due to the import restrictions, 2024 closed with 4.4 million tons of imports and 3 million tons of exports. In the first three months of 2025, exports dropped by over 40% compared to the same period last year.

“The flour industry must rely on exports to survive. If we produce only for the domestic market, the industry will cannibalize itself. Domestic consumption already hovers around 12–13 million tons. Therefore, export policies determine the fate of the sector,” said Çakmak, stressing that lifting the barriers to wheat imports is essential for the industry's recovery.

Capacity Issues and Factory Closures

Çakmak noted that there are 430 active flour mills across Turkey, with a total capacity exceeding 32 million tons, yet actual usage remains around 23 million tons. He explained that, especially over the past three years, economic fluctuations, foreign trade measures, and exchange rate pressures have forced many factories to shut down.

“In effect, we’ve regressed by a decade. As the new administration, we will re-evaluate data such as active capacity, closed facilities, and regional distribution,” he said.

Climate Change and the Threat of Drought

Çakmak stated that Turkey achieved its highest production in six years during the 2023 season and shared his outlook for the 2025 wheat yield: “The high yield in 2023 had raised our hopes. However, we closed the 2024 season with a 5.5% drop, at 20.8 million tons. The outlook for 2025 is even more worrying. Due to drought affecting many regions, we foresee that this year’s production may fall below 20 million tons. As a country, we rely heavily on rainfall for productivity. Thus, the impact of climate change and irregular precipitation on the sector becomes more evident each year. Although Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data points to a general trend of increasing yields, unfortunately, we are still behind the global average.”

Industry Concerns: Financing, Logistics, and Stock Costs

For flour producers, concerns go beyond exports. Access to financing, high input costs, storage infrastructure, and global economic uncertainties also pose significant challenges. Çakmak noted that rising input costs, labor issues, and currency volatility are increasing uncertainty, while the growing stock costs in exporting countries are directly influencing prices.

He also warned that using agricultural exports as a financing tool—driven by wars, political instability, and foreign currency needs—poses long-term sustainability risks.

An Industry at a Crossroads

The year 2025 marks a critical turning point for the flour industry in terms of export sustainability and market share retention. Border issues stemming from political tensions in Iraq and Russia’s aggressive export drive directly threaten Turkey’s global leadership. The solution may lie in flexible trade policies that pave the way for exports, as well as swift diplomatic interventions to resolve regional conflicts.