New forecasts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) suggest that the global cereal stock-to-use ratio will decline but still remain comfortable.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, forecasting a 0.6% decline in global cereal production for 2024, reaching 2,841 million tonnes. While this marks a downward revision from October's forecast, it still represents the second-largest production on record.

Global wheat output for 2024 is expected to remain steady at 789 million tonnes, while maize production is projected to decrease by 1.9% to 1,271 million tonnes due to lower-than-anticipated yields in the European Union and the United States.

FAO's forecast for global rice production in the 2024/25 period points to a record high of 538.8 million tonnes, reflecting an annual increase of 0.8%.

Regional Variations in Sowing Patterns

Looking ahead to 2025, lower wheat prices may deter the expansion of winter wheat sowing in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Russian Federation, insufficient rainfall has led to low soil moisture, negatively impacting planting operations. Conversely, in China and India, favorable soil moisture conditions, government support policies, and attractive prices are expected to boost planting areas.

In the Southern Hemisphere, coarse grain crops show mixed trends. Maize sowing in Argentina is anticipated to contract due to drought and the risk of leafhopper-borne stunt disease. Meanwhile, Brazil's early planting intentions are buoyed by the return of rainfall, suggesting stable maize areas. In South Africa, white maize sowing is expected to increase, driven by record prices, compensating for a reduction in yellow maize areas.

Global Consumption and Stocks

Global cereal utilization in the 2024/25 period is forecast to grow by 0.6%, reaching 2,859 million tonnes, primarily driven by increased food consumption of rice and wheat.

However, global cereal stocks are projected to decline by 0.7%, dropping below their opening levels. Despite this, FAO estimates the global cereal stock-to-use ratio at 30.1% for 2024/25, slightly down from 30.8% the previous year, but still indicating a "comfortable supply level."

International cereal trade is forecast to drop by 4.6% to 484 million tonnes in the 2024/25 period. While wheat and maize trade volumes are expected to decline, rice trade is projected to increase.