Soaring nitrogen costs triggered by war-related energy disruptions are prompting European farmers to cut fertilizer use, scale back corn and wheat plans, and shift acreage toward less input-intensive crops, raising fresh concerns over grain supplies, yields, and import dependence, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, reported.

War-related disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets are beginning to change Europe’s crop choices for the 2026/27 season, with potentially important consequences for grain balances, feed formulation, and import needs. According to a March 13 feature published, rising fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East war and higher natural gas prices are forcing farmers across Europe to scale back nitrogen use and reconsider planting decisions, particularly for corn and wheat.  

Platts reported that the prospect of lower Middle East natural gas supply pushed Dutch TTF day-ahead gas prices sharply higher, to Eur50.30/MWh on March 12 from Eur32/MWh on February 26. That energy shock quickly translated into the fertilizer market. Platts assessed granular urea FCA Italy at Eur700/mt on March 12, up from Eur530/mt on February 26, marking a 32% increase in just over two weeks. The surge is now feeding directly into farm-level decisions across the continent, especially for crops with high nitrogen requirements. 

CORN COMES UNDER THE GREATEST PRESSURE

Among major grains, corn appears to be the first and clearest casualty of the fertilizer squeeze. Platts said high nitrogen costs are already weighing on acreage decisions in several major producing countries, while farmers in some regions are also cutting application rates to contain costs. In Italy, one corn trader told Platts that planting decisions for April and May are increasingly favoring soybeans over corn because “farmers are choosing soybeans over corn as fertilizers are expensive.” Another Italy-based trader said corn area has already fallen this year and that the country is likely to depend more heavily on imports. 

That shift is not confined to Italy. According to S&P Global CERA projection, Italy’s corn area is expected to decline to around 480,000 hectares in MY 2026/27, down from 541,000 hectares in MY 2025/26. The same outlook points to further declines in other key EU producers, including Poland (-9%), France (-3%), and Spain (-11%). 

FEED RATIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT

The implications are already being felt beyond the farm gate. Platts noted that the feed sector is adjusting rations as relative crop economics change. Market participants told that EU feed wheat is emerging as the “most attractive” option in livestock diets, partly replacing corn. That substitution matters because it suggests the fertilizer shock may not only reduce corn output, but also increase pressure on wheat demand within feed channels.

In the Balkans, the adjustment is taking a slightly different form. Farmers are still planting corn, but they are reducing fertilizer intensity. A trader from Serbia told Platts: “Farmers are planting corn; they are not going to use fertilizer as much,” adding that they would cut back or switch to cheaper products such as KAN (calcium ammonium nitrate) instead of urea. A Bulgarian trader similarly said lower fertilizer application rates are likely to weigh on yields even if planting continues. 

Reflecting the growing concern around supply, Platts assessed corn FOB CVB at $233/mt on March 12, up $4/mt from $229/mt on February 26, before the war. 

WHEAT FACES BOTH YIELD AND QUALITY RISKS

The fertilizer shock is also changing sentiment in wheat. In Romania, Platts reported that wheat growers are facing difficult decisions after a period of negative profit margins, even though winter conditions at the early stages of production had been relatively favorable. One farmer in southwest Bucharest told the agency that urea prices in Constanta rose to $590/mt in February, up from $520/mt in December and January, and even below that level in autumn 2025. Combined with lower fertilizer use, these issues raise the risk of another disappointing crop in both quantity and quality terms. 

According to S&P Global CERA forecast, Romania’s wheat area is expected to decline 2.43% year on year in MY 2026/27, while Bulgaria’s is projected to fall 14.61%. Platts assessed FOB CVB 12.5% protein wheat at $243/mt and 11.5% protein wheat at $241/mt on March 12, both up $4/mt since February 27. 

RISING COSTS FUEL NITROGEN SUPPLY CONCERNS

Platts reported that attention in Europe is already turning to spring 2027, amid worries that affordability problems could evolve into a broader nitrogen supply crunch. A distributor active in the Benelux region described the current fertilizer market as a “perfect storm” of rising costs, driven by CBAM charges since January 1, weak grain prices, and a sudden jump in nitrogen prices. 

One of the strongest warnings in the report came from a source at one of the UK’s largest fertilizer importers, who told Platts: “Europe will run out of nitrogen fertilizer in spring 2027, due to CBAM and tight global supply,” adding that “this message needs to get to governments/EU.”