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Speaking at the IDMA Global Grain & Milling Forum in Istanbul, Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council, said global wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast to fall by 3% from the previous year’s peak, but overall supplies are expected to remain ample thanks to record carry-in stocks. Karavaytsev highlighted El Niño risks, smaller crops in major exporting countries, weaker import needs in some key destinations and the growing importance of freight, logistics and currency movements in shaping global wheat trade.

USDA projects Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat and barley crops to rebound sharply on the back of stronger autumn and winter rainfall, with wheat output rising to 19.8 million tonnes and barley to 7.0 million tonnes.

In an assessment for BBM Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Soaring nitrogen costs triggered by war-related energy disruptions are prompting European farmers to cut fertilizer use, scale back corn and wheat plans, and shift acreage toward less input-intensive crops, raising fresh concerns over grain supplies, yields, and import dependence, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, reported.

The more than 70% decline in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has roiled energy markets and put up to one-third of global fertilizer trade at risk.

The U.S.–Israel operation against Iran has created a new geopolitical risk zone that could affect not only the political balance of the Middle East but also the global trade and food system.

Escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is sending shockwaves through global energy, fertilizer and grain markets as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.

Robust global production and elevated stock levels are keeping grain prices under pressure, while weaker income expectations are accelerating farmers’ shift toward oilseeds such as sunflower and soybeans, according to Saban Buttanrı, CEO of Agrolino Grains and Oil Seeds.

The FAO’s latest report projects a 5.6% decline in global grain trade for 2024/25, driven by reduced demand from China and export restrictions in major producing countries.

AD Ports Group has signed a 50-year land lease agreement with Al Ain Mills, a member of Al Hazaa Investment Group.