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Escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is sending shockwaves through global energy, fertilizer and grain markets as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.

Robust global production and elevated stock levels are keeping grain prices under pressure, while weaker income expectations are accelerating farmers’ shift toward oilseeds such as sunflower and soybeans, according to Saban Buttanrı, CEO of Agrolino Grains and Oil Seeds.

The FAO’s latest report projects a 5.6% decline in global grain trade for 2024/25, driven by reduced demand from China and export restrictions in major producing countries.

AD Ports Group has signed a 50-year land lease agreement with Al Ain Mills, a member of Al Hazaa Investment Group.