The U.S.–Israel operation against Iran has created a new geopolitical risk zone that could affect not only the political balance of the Middle East but also the global trade and food system. Fluctuations in energy prices, maritime transport, and fertilizer markets have the potential to increase cost pressures in the milling, pasta, and baking industries. Even if the crisis is brought under control in the short term, this development once again highlights how critical the global food system’s dependence on energy and logistics has become.

The joint military operation launched against Iran by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026, created a new geopolitical fracture with ripple effects across the global economy. As military tensions in the Middle East escalated rapidly, significant pressure began to build on energy markets, maritime transport, and supply chains. These developments have already started to affect a wide range of sectors—from food production to logistics. For industries such as flour milling, pasta production, and baking, which rely heavily on energy-intensive processes, these developments have brought cost pressures back to the forefront.

Following the attacks on Iran, the rise in security risks in the Gulf region and serious disruptions to maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz have directly affected global energy trade. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil trade passes through this narrow passage. In the early days of the conflict, tanker traffic declined by as much as 70 percent, and hundreds of vessels began waiting due to security concerns, triggering a rapid increase in oil prices. Brent crude rose by more than 10 percent within a few days, surpassing $80 per barrel, while some analysts predict that prices could exceed $100 if the conflict continues.

The first impact of rising energy prices is being felt in the food industry through increased production and logistics costs. Sectors such as flour and pasta production are highly sensitive to changes in energy and transportation costs. In particular, fluctuations in natural gas and electricity prices directly affect many stages of production, from milling to pasta manufacturing.

Energy costs are rising again

The impact of tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets has been extremely rapid. The increase in security risks in the Gulf region—through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG shipments pass—has triggered a price increase commonly referred to in energy markets as the “geopolitical risk premium.”

Analysts note that energy prices are influenced not only by physical supply disruptions but also by the pricing of potential risks. Even the possibility of disruptions to the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz is enough to trigger strong price increases in the markets. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass through this strait each day, and its closure or operation at limited capacity would represent a major shock for the global energy market.

Rising energy prices affect food production through three main channels:

•  Electricity and natural gas costs used in mills and pasta plants
•  Fertilizer and diesel prices used in agricultural production
•  Transportation and distribution expenses

When these three factors converge, they can influence the entire cost chain from the wheat field to the factory and ultimately to the consumer.

Freight and insurance costs are rising rapidly

One of the most critical impacts of the military tension in the Middle East on global trade has been the rapid increase in maritime transport costs. Iran’s threats and attacks targeting vessels in the Gulf have led international insurance companies to classify the region as a “high-risk war zone.”

The fact that war risk premiums increased by more than 50 percent in a short period has significantly raised the cost of entry for tankers and cargo ships into the region. This development affects not only energy transportation but also the shipment of grain and food products.

Many international shipowners and container companies have temporarily suspended their operations on Gulf routes or redirected them to alternative routes due to security concerns. However, since there is no real alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas shipments, there is a serious risk of logistical bottlenecks in the system.

Rising freight costs particularly affect the following trade flows:

•  Wheat exports from the Black Sea and Europe to the Middle East
•  Pasta exports from Türkiye and Italy to Gulf countries
•  Flour shipments from Türkiye to the Middle East and North Africa

For this reason, developments in the region are indirectly affecting not only energy markets but also a significant portion of the global grain trade.

The possibility of a new crisis in the fertilizer market

Tensions in the Middle East also threaten fertilizer production, another critical component of the global food chain. The Gulf region supplies a significant portion of the key raw materials required for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer production.

Experts note that supply disruptions particularly in the urea and ammonia markets could create pressure on global agricultural production. During the first days of the conflict, urea prices reportedly increased by approximately $130 per ton, while ammonia futures prices in Europe rose above $700.

Rising fertilizer prices are seen as an important factor that could affect wheat production with a delay of several months. This situation could create new pressure on wheat supply and prices, particularly during the 2026–2027 season.

Risks for the wheat and flour trade

The Middle East is one of the largest importing regions in the global wheat trade. Countries such as Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates import millions of tons of wheat each year.

Increasing geopolitical tensions in the region could affect grain trade in three different ways:

1. Financing and payment risks

Uncertainties in the banking system and rising insurance costs during wartime may complicate commercial transactions. Sanctions risks, in particular, could narrow financial channels in trade with certain countries.

2. Logistical delays

Delays in maritime transport could extend delivery times for grain shipments. This situation represents a risk for importing countries, especially in terms of inventory management.

3. Price volatility

Rising energy and logistics costs may also cause fluctuations in grain prices. This could trigger food inflation, particularly in import-dependent countries.

What does this mean for Türkiye and Europe?

Türkiye is one of the world’s largest flour exporters and also a major player in pasta exports. The Turkish milling industry sells extensively to markets in the Middle East and Africa.

This new tension in the Middle East presents both risks and opportunities for Türkiye.

The most important risk factors include:

•  Rising energy costs
•  Increasing freight and insurance expenses
•  Potential contraction in regional demand

However, some scenarios could also create new export opportunities for Türkiye. If sanctions against Iran expand or if Iran’s food industry production capacity is damaged, supply gaps may emerge in certain markets across the region.

These gaps could potentially be filled by regional producers such as Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Cost pressure in the baking and pasta sectors

The baking and pasta industries are considered among the most energy-sensitive areas of food production. Pasta production requires large amounts of electricity and steam energy, while natural gas consumption represents a major cost component in the baking sector.

If the rise in energy prices continues, the following effects may occur:

•  Increased production costs
•  Higher final product prices
•  Demand contraction in some markets

In developing countries in particular, increases in the prices of staple foods such as bread and pasta are viewed as an issue with potential social and economic consequences.

Is the global food system ready for another shock?

In recent years, the global food system has experienced several major shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and security crises in the Red Sea have demonstrated how fragile the food supply chain can be.

The new tension that began with the military operation against Iran has once again brought these vulnerabilities to the forefront. The simultaneous rise in energy, fertilizer, and logistics costs creates a multilayered risk for food production.

However, some experts note that global grain stocks are in a better position compared with previous crises, which could help prevent a major supply crisis in the short term.

Nevertheless, if tensions in the Middle East persist for an extended period, it appears inevitable that the cost pressures that begin with rising energy prices will be reflected more strongly in global food markets.