Seeds of next global crisis?

25 November 20212 min reading

Mustafa Yağmurlu

Dear readers,

We are together with the 47th issue of our magazine.

The decisions made or to be made by Russia, which is one of the largest wheat exporting countries, cause an increase in wheat prices. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev pointed out that if there is a strong increase in prices, he may raise grain export duties, raising concerns in the tight markets that are already on tenterhooks. Wheat prices, which have climbed to the highest level since December 2012, are being followed anxiously all over the world.

The strong rise in energy prices since the beginning of 2021 has increased inflation in large-scale economies. Experts warn that the subsequent pressure may come from food prices. Because the price increases in grain and pulse products, particularly wheat, which is used in the production of many food products such as bread, pasta, bulgur, semolina, cakes, and biscuits, threaten global food inflation. The increase in wheat prices was realized with the highest annual increase in consumer prices in the USA since 1990 and the world food costs reaching the highest level of the last 10 years.

Rising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs and upward pressure on food demand have further increased uncertainty in the global food system. Food prices, which carry weight heavier than energy in inflation, negatively affect particularly emerging market economies. May the seeds of the next global crisis have been spread by food prices? 

The rising demand for wheat due to the panic, EU's preparations to close the season at a very low level, and the US reserves expected to decrease by more than 30 percent compared to the same period last year are causing this trend in the already unstable global supply to continue. There is concern that food security in large populations and poor grain-importing countries may experience major problems until the harvest season of 2022.

See you in the next issue.

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