At the Global Grain & Pulses Forum 2025 in Dubai, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, IAOM Eurasia Chairman, addressed the growing competition Turkish flour millers are facing from emerging players like Russia and Egypt. He pointed out that while Turkey remains the world's leading wheat flour exporter, it has seen a decline in its market share, with both Russia and Egypt surpassing 1 million tons in flour exports last year.

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy
IAOM Eurasia Chairman

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, IAOM Eurasia Chairman, presented a comprehensive analysis of Turkey's wheat production, trade trends and market outlook at the Global Grain & Pulses Forum 2025 in Dubai. His presentation highlighted key developments in wheat yields, supply and demand balance and Turkey’s role in global wheat and flour trade.

Despite maintaining the almost same planted area, Turkey’s wheat production has been increasing, primarily due to improvements in yield. This trend, observed since the 1960s, has led to yields reaching three tons per hectare in the most recent season. Dr. Ulusoy emphasized that while climate conditions and rainfall impact short-term fluctuations, technological advancements, improved seeding techniques, and better fertilizers continue to drive long-term growth. However, Turkey’s global share of wheat production has declined from 3.5% to around 2.5%, as irrigated lands are increasingly allocated to crops like cotton, corn, and oilseeds, while wheat production remains stable.

TURKEY’S WHEAT IMPORTS OUTLOOK

Dr. Ulusoy addressed inconsistencies in the 2024-25 season estimates for Turkey’s wheat supply and demand (S&D) from different institutions, including the USDA, International Grains Council (IGC), and the Turkish Statistical Institute. According to him:

• USDA’s beginning stock estimates (5.2 million tons) are significantly lower than reality.
• IGC’s assumption of 3.95 million tons for ending stocks is closer to the actual figüre.
• In the 2023/24 season, Turkey recorded historically high ending stocks, driven by strong domestic production and increased imports.

Turkey’s wheat imports peaked at 11.8 million tons in 2023, accounting for 5.5% of global wheat trade, but dropped to 8.3 million tons in 2023/24. For the current season, Dr. Ulusoy projects only 2 million tons of imports, significantly below USDA’s 5-million-ton estimate.

"With just four months left in the season, reaching USDA’s projected 5 million tons of imports is not possible under the current regulatory framework," he noted. He predicts that Turkey’s wheat import share in global trade will decrease from 3.7% last year to just 1%, marking its lowest level since the 2012/13 season. Dr. Ulusoy attributed this shift to strict import regulations, including, complete import ban from June 21 to October 15, 2024.

1.2 MILLION TONS STOCKPILED IN BONDED STORAGE

From July to December 2024, customs-cleared wheat imports totaled only 215,000 tons, compared to 850,000 tons per month in previous years. 1.8 million tons of wheat arrived at Turkish ports, yet only 215,000 tons were customs-cleared, indicating that a large volume remains in bonded storage. “1.2 million tons are currently held in bonded warehouses, serving as a buffer stock for potential future imports,” he said.

TURKEY’S TRANSITION FROM DURUM WHEAT IMPORTER TO EXPORTER

Turkey has undergone a major shift in its durum wheat trade balance, transitioning from an importer to an exporter over the past five years. “In 2019/20, Turkey imported 1.8 million tons of durum wheat due to drought. By 2023/24, we exported the same amount, marking a complete reversal in trade position,” Ulusoy noted.

However, durum wheat exports have slowed this season, not due to supply shortages but because of pricing dynamics. Last year’s drought in Canada pushed prices above $500 per ton, making exports more attractive. “This year, with lower prices, stocks remain in warehouses instead of entering the market.”

RISING COMPETITION IN GLOBAL FLOUR EXPORTS

Turkey remains the world’s largest wheat flour exporter, followed by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Germany. However, new players such as Russia and Egypt surpassed 1 million tons in flour exports last year, partially replacing Turkey’s lost market share. In 2024, Turkey’s flour exports declined from 3.6 million tons to 3 million tons, while pasta exports remained stable at 1.4 million tons. 

The global flour trade has remained relatively stagnant, increasing only from 13 million tons to 16 million tons over the past 20 years, in contrast to rapid growth in wheat trade. Dr. Ulusoy explained that this stagnation is due to countries increasing their domestic milling capacity, reducing reliance on flour imports.

BLACK SEA'S ROLE IN TURKEY’S GRAIN SUPPLY

Russia and Ukraine have been Turkey’s primary grain suppliers, providing 98-99% of Turkey’s imported milling wheat. Similar trends are seen in corn and barley imports, where Russia and Ukraine account for 95% of Turkey’s total imports.

2025/26 TURKISH CROP OUTLOOK

Turkey’s rainfall levels have been below average, with some regions experiencing a 26-40% decrease in precipitation. “While a full-scale drought has not yet materialized, the risk remains,” Ulusoy warned. “75% of Turkey’s wheat is grown on non-irrigated land, making rainfall a critical factor for production. A warmer-than-usual March is expected, but dry conditions could persist, especially in Southeast and Central Anatolia, Turkey’s key wheat-producing regions…If Turkey’s wheat production falls to 18 million tons, wheat imports could rise to 9 million tons in the 2025/26 season, exceeding the typical level of 7 million tons."