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IGC raises grain production forecast

22 April 20222 min reading

The International Grains Council (IGC) has published a new report on global grain production.

According to the report, almost entirely because of a revised estimate for Brazil's maize crop, the forecast for world 2021/22 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is lifted by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,287m, an increase of 3% y/y (year-on-year). Global consumption is placed 4m t higher m/m, leaving cumulative world ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) 1m lower than before. With an upgrade for maize more than offsetting cuts for wheat, barley, sorghum and oats, world trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 1m t m/m.

This report includes the first full set of total grains supply and demand projections for 2022/23, which are especially tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region. Despite larger carry-in stocks, world grains supply (production plus opening stocks) is forecast to contract slightly on a comparatively steeper drop in output, placed almost 1% lower y/y, at 2,275m t. While consumption growth is forecast to be slower than average, end-season inventories are seen sharply down.

Reflecting downgrades for southern hemisphere producers, 2021/22 global soyabean output is seen marginally lower m/m, at 349m t (-5% y/y). With the figure for utilisation cut further, the outlook for inventories is uprated, albeit still equating to a sharp y/y fall. With evidence of a marked slowing of Brazilian dispatches, trade is forecast 4m t lower m/m, at 155m (-3%). Linked to expectations for a rebound in the three majors, 2022/23 world production is seen rising by 10% y/y, with uptake and stocks also expected to expand. Trade is projected to increase by 7% y/y.

On the basis of uprated figures for Asian producers, world rice output in 2021/22 is lifted by 1m t, to a record of 515m (+1%), with outlooks for consumption, stocks and trade also pegged fractionally higher m/m. World rice production in 2022/23 is tentatively seen establishing a new high, including gains in key exporters. Further growth in uptake and inventories is predicted, but global import demand may edge lower in 2023 (Jan/Dec) on softer Asian buying interest.

With net gains in most sub-components, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased by 1% compared to mid-March.



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